Texas Southern vs Kansas: Preview and Players to Watch

Meet the Kansas Jayhawks' opponent in tonight's Round of 64 matchup: the 16 seeded Texas Southern Tigers

David Potter | Mar 17, 2022

Texas Southern vs Kansas: Preview and Players to Watch /

Overview
Players to Watch
Prediction

Texas Southern beat fellow 16 seed Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Tuesday night to earn the honor of this Round of 64 matchup with top seeded Kansas. They pulled away in the second half to win fairly comfortably, 76-67. But who are these Texas Southern Tigers, and are they a threat to make KU nervous?

Sorry to spoil the suspense so early but, no they shouldn't be. Texas Southern ranks 183rd in KenPom's ratings, and both Vegas and KenPom seem to agree they're a roughly 22 point underdog. That said, there are some unique traits present for Texas Southern that make them a bit unusual for a barely-known 16 seed that we can dive into.

Overview

The main thing that sticks out is their size. So many of these teams on the small end of the mid majors are, well, small. It's not usual to see a team's "center" and leading rebounder be a wide bodied guy who only stands 6'6 and doesn't present much threat to a power 5 team's frontcourt. The Tigers, however, can roll out three different players who stand 6'9. This has led them to be an elite shot blocking team, 7th in the country in block rate. What's interesting is that they didn't build that number by swatting a bunch of shots in the underwhelming SWAC. Their block rate was actually lower in conference play than it was in non-con by a decent amount, meaning this team blocked a lot of shots early in the year against a surprisingly solid non-conference slate.

While we're on the subject, who has this team played? They were brave when they set up this schedule, which KenPom rates as the 9th toughest non-con in Division 1. Yes, that led to an 0-7 start, but this team doesn't have to guess at what it's like to play with the big boys. They've already battled St. Mary's, Oregon, BYU, Florida, Washington, and NC State. They lost to all but Florida, but played St. Mary's within single digits, and all of the above stayed within 20 points. They were hardly giant-slayers early on, but they entered conference play already battle tested, and that may provide some additional confidence tonight.

In terms of how this team plays, I have some good news: they don't shoot threes often, and they don't shoot them well. Just 31% of their shots have come from behind the arc, and just 31.7% have gone in. They don't have a ton of success inside the arc either, and they have turnover problems, which adds up to what KenPom rates as the 269th ranked offense in the country. Defensively they've looked much better, with the aforementioned shot blocking ability which could actually translate against Kansas. That said, most of their defensive success has hinged on teams shooting very poorly against them. Sure, part of that is due to rim protection, but part is also due to teams shooting very, very poorly from three and the free throw line against them. Teams have little actual control over the former, and obviously zero control over the latter. That means some luck has been on the Tigers' side, and they'll need that to continue to have a shot against the Jayhawks

Players to Watch

PJ Henry, 5'10 junior point guard

This team spreads its minutes around a lot (and I really mean a lot), but Henry has played the most. He's arguably their most reliable 3 point shooter at 36% on 84 attempts, and while he doesn't pop in any other statistical category, he's probably your most likely candidate to get hot from three and put Kansas fans on edge.

John Walker, 6'9 senior forward

Walker has only attempted 43 threes, but at 6'9 he's hit 42% of them, so that could be a bit troubling. He's also tied for second on the team in block rate, so he's part of the rim protection that has helped this team so much.

Joirdon Karl Nicholas, 6'9 senior forward

Nicholas rebounds well and is tied with Walker in block rate. He missed the only four threes he shot this year, but made up for it by shooting for and away the most twos on the team (203) and making 57% of them. Texas Southern spreads things around in terms of minutes and points, but this is the name you'll likely hear most tonight.

Brinson Gresham, 6'9 senior center

I usually only preview three players, but again, this team plays a lot of dudes pretty evenly, and Gresham has a really interesting profile. At 6'9, 240 pounds, he's the team leader in offensive and defensive rebounding rate. He also boasts a downright Withey-esque 13% block rate. Between the size and rim protection ability, this is not the type of guy you expect to see in a 16 seed matchup on a team that started 0-7. It will be interesting to see if he can have a meaningful impact on whether David McCormack can get it going in this one.

Prediction

After pouring over this team's talented trio of legitimately big bigs, I've almost talked myself into being worried about this one. But at the same time, this is a team, for all its size and unique traits, that lost six games against teams ranked outside KenPom's top 200 (and got a 1 point OT win over another). They were taken to the woodshed by 99th ranked Louisiana Tech. It's easy to find things about this team that could be troubling in isolation, but overall they aren't skilled enough to beat Kansas in anything other than a complete aberration. I do think they'll come out undeterred by KU's stature, and that could turn into a sloppy start that keeps things in question for a while in the 1st half. But for all the rim protection and rotation of solid frontcourt guys they have, you'll notice I didn't say anything about players who can stop guys like Agbaji, Braun, and Martin from finding, creating and making shots. Kansas will win, and I don't think fans will be sweating much down the stretch.

Kansas 84, Texas Southern 64

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Published Mar 17, 2022

DAVID POTTER

David spent most of his childhood in Kansas and graduated from KU in 2007. He's currently in Arizona, but is a diehard fan of Jayhawk football and basketball. He's far more interested in stats and analytics than would be considered healthy.

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