Texas Tech vs Kansas: Big 12 Championship Preview

The Kansas Jayhawks face the Texas Tech Red Raiders for the third time this season in championship game of the Big 12 tournament.

Oklahoma came very close to being Kansas' opponent in tonight's Big 12 Tournament finale, but Texas Tech was able to squeak by with a 56-55 win. Of course, in the first game of the night, the Jayhawks comfortably moved past TCU, 75-62.

Playing Tech a third time is unlikely to make many Kansas fans especially happy. The first time these two met, in Lubbock, Tech was without two of their top players, the Jayhawks were road favorites, and yet could never really get back into the game after the Red Raiders took a first half lead. Kansas shot well, but turned it over 17 times and lost by eight. In Lawrence, Kansas held a double digit lead with 7 minutes to go, but saw it collapse entirely. The fans went into two overtimes, and a miracle three by Ochai Agbaji was needed to get it that far. KU finally pulled away in the second OT to win 94-91.

This is still the Texas Tech team we've seen all year. They play brutally physical defense, with the exception of when their players collapse to the court like suddenly-empty piles of uniform any time they see an opportunity to flail and draw a charge. Though as much as it's frustrating and ugly to watch, referees love few things in life more than calling a charge, and Tech's strategy works. It works especially well against KU because 1) their players aren't especially adept at foreseeing attempts to draw charges, and 2) they tend to struggle against physical teams when referees aren't calling many fouls (and we're currently in an era of college basketball in which players might as well need to wear pads). 

Prediction

Based on their first two matchups, TCU looked like a tough match for KU too, and the Jayhawks didn't struggle much last night. But the Jayhawks played them in the middle of a grueling stretch of schedule, twice in three nights. In two competely different scenarios, Tech has posed a real challenge to Kansas this year. If it had been any other Big 12 team, I probably would have picked Kansas here, but there's just something about the way Tech plays that makes me fear the worst. 

Texas Tech 73, Kansas 70