Villanova vs Kansas: NCAA Tournament Preview & Players to Watch

A quick preview of the opponent as the Jayhawks once again gets a shot at the Wildcats in the Final Four.

Contents

1. Overview
2. Players to Watch
3. Prediction

The last time Kansas made it to the Final Four in 2018, their first (and only) opponent was Villanova. As anyone reading this likely remembers all too well. it didn't go as Kansas had hoped. Villanova was NBA Jam-level ON FIRE in the first half, and there wasn't much Kansas could do to try and catch up by the time they actually missed a couple of shots.

Overview

This year's Villanova team is essentially a less-lethal version of the same thing. They still shoot a lot of threes. They still make a lot of threes. They still play stingy, but not quite dominant defense, and do it without fouling. This year's team is very methodical, ranking just 345th in tempo across D1 teams. They haven't been especially dangerous from two, hitting almost right at half their shots inside the arc, but they rarely turn it over, and grab a lot of their misses, ranking in the top 75 nationally in offensive rebounding rate. And as you may have heard, they aren't just good at the free throw line, they're incredible. They're on pace to become D1's top free throw shooting team in history by making 83% from the line. For reference, Kansas doesn't have a single player, no matter how small the sample size, even making 80%. 83% as a team is unreal, so it goes without saying that fouling Nova, especially since they aren't a great two point team, is a recipe for disaster.

Defensively, Villanova is middle of the road in forcing turnovers, which means less pressure than Kansas faced against many Big 12 opponents. Their defensive eFG% is outstanding, but also a bit misleading. Villanova allows opponents to shoot a large volume of threes, but opponents have hit just 30.1% of them. A defensive 3P% like that is hard to see as anything but an outlier. However, they don't block many shots, and their two point defense is just ok (48%). If KU's offense can't get going, I would guess it will have more to do with Kansas than Villanova being a poor matchup for them. In addition, Villanova lost guard Justin Moore to an Achilles tear in their last game, and he was one of their better perimeter defenders, as well as the team leader in minutes played (and 2nd in scoring).

Players to Watch

Collin Gillespie, senior guard

© Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

Gillespie isn't a future NBA talent, but he's been one of college basketball's top point guards all year. He hits 41% from three, 47% from two, and 91% at the line, while also leading the team in assists. He won't generate a lot of steals, but he's also a pesky defender, likely to help off of DaJuan Harris when he's in the game.

Jermaine Samuels, 6'7 senior forward

© Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Samuels hit 57.3% of the twos he shot this year, and while he's unlikely to hurt you from three, he'll make you consider defending him out to the perimeter, having put up 102 threes this year (though making just 27.5% of them). He's the team's top rim protector, though far from elite, and a solid rebounder on both ends. He's good at getting bigs into foul trouble too, second on the team in free throw attempts and hitting 77% when he gets there.

Caleb Daniels, 6'4 senior guard

© Scott Wachter-USA TODAY Sports

Daniels isn't normally a starter, but may be the likely replacement in the lineup for Moore. I list him here just because Nova has scarred KU fans for life with their net scorching performance in '18, and after Gillespie, Daniels is their best three point shooter, hitting 38% of his 151 attempts. He's unlikely to contribute heavily in many other areas of the game.

Prediction

It's hard to predict exactly what we'll see out of Villanova without one of their top players. They already keep a pretty short bench, but I'm not sure a heavy load of minutes is too likely to limit their other players, since they've had a week's rest and the benefit of extra long tournament timeouts. Honestly, looking at how these two teams match up, this could just come down to shot making. The team that's feeling it the most may just end up the one moving on. Being a pessimist by nature, I'll go with Villanova in a close game.

Villanova 77, Kansas 73