NCAA Tournament 2024- East Regional Preview

We take a closer look at the East Region where there could be multiple close first round games.

The NCAA tournament is upon us, and as usual, we have you covered through Kansas’ run in the tournament. We’ve also got our annual breakdowns of each region. In this article, we examine the East Region.

Contents

1. Biggest Storylines
2. Best First-Round Matchup
3. Upset/Cinderella pick
4. Dark horse pick
5. Regional final prediction

Biggest Storylines

The top half of the bracket features three of last year’s Final Four teams in defending champion UConn, Florida Atlantic, and runners-up San Diego State. At least one of last year’s teams is guaranteed to be sent packing before the Sweet 16 even starts.

UConn is looking to win the national title in back-to-back years, and they could realistically do it. The Huskies have the best team in this region (and the entire field) and are solid in every position. They'd be the first team since 2007 Florida to repeat, but unlike last season, the pressure will be squarely on the Huskies' backs.

For all the wrong reasons, Illinois is a story to watch. Terrence Shannon, Jr. was charged with felony rape in December and was indefinitely suspended by the Illini. Since then, Shannon has sued the university and has since been fully reinstated and has played in all but six games for Illinois, averaging 23 points per game in the process. This feels like a team that will need to pack the arena with their own fans because all opposing fan bases will likely be cheering against the Illini.

Best First-Round Matchup

8 Florida Atlantic vs 9 Northwestern

It might sound a little on the nose to predict the eight/nine game as the best of the first round, but in the East Region, it seems like the most likely game that could come down to a buzzer beater.

Florida Atlantic returns most of its Cinderella Final Four team from a year ago, but that collective decided that playing defense was optional in 2024, giving up an average of 75 PPG in their final 17 games of the season. The Owls' defensive efficiency is 109th in KenPom entering the tournament. 

A matchup with Northwestern awaits the Owls, the same Northwestern that took care of Purdue and Illinois this season. The Wildcats have been hit with a few injuries and could be without the services of a few key players (Ty Berry is definitely out, while Matthew Nicholson is questionable). Even a bit shorthanded, Northwestern is a team that will not be intimidated by FAU’s recent pedigree. This game should be exciting.

Upset/Cinderella pick

12 UAB over 5 San Diego State.

Again, a little cliché here with the 12 over five “upset,” but it feels like a bigger upset because this five seed played for the championship last year. UAB is on a roll, winning the AAC Tournament, and it plays good defense as well – Yaxel Lindeborg was the conference defensive POY. The Blazers also have a knack of getting fouled and converting at the line. The Blazers are top-20 nationally in free-throw to field-goal attempt rate and shoot 74% from the line. 

Meanwhile, the Aztecs are licking their wounds a bit, essentially alternating wins and losses to finish the last two months of the season. This was our second choice for best first round game in the East, and if UAB wins, they’ve likely got Auburn next, a tasty matchup indeed.

Dark horse pick

For our dark horse picks in each region, we’ve set the parameter at a five seed or lower that could win the region. This eliminates each of the top four seeds and obviously the pick of many to win the region, Connecticut.

San Diego State is a logical choice as the five seed, and considering it went all the way to the championship game from that exact seeding last season, that pick would make sense. But we’re going to step out on a limb here and say seventh seed Washington State.

The Cougars went 24-9 on the season and finished second in the Pac-12 behind Arizona. They swept Arizona in the regular season and finished the season winning 14 of their final 18 games. Isaac Jones is a player to watch, leading Washington State in both points and rebounds per game, but Jaylen Wells’ insertion into the starting lineup has been a revelation for the Cougars. He began starting in mid-January and since then, he has become the third leading scorer on the the season for the Cougs.

They face a tough task in Drake in the first round, but this is the kind of dynamic team that can give Iowa State plenty of trouble in the round of 32, should they meet there. If they win that, anything can happen and an Elite Eight matchup with UConn certainly isn’t out of the question.

Regional final prediction

UConn over Illinois

Connecticut has a pretty clear path to the national semifinal, but the bottom half of the bracket is where it gets interesting and could be a potential slipping point for the Huskies. Obviously, Iowa State can get hot and defends the ball well, but it only takes a 10-minute span for its ship to sink. I want to take Washington State, but Illinois is more battle tested, so I'll take them to get to the Elite Eight. Facing UConn is another beast altogether, so I'm taking the Huskies to reach the Final Four out of the East Region.

Follow Us: Twitter | Instagram | Discord | The Rock Chalk Podcast