Oklahoma State at Kansas Basketball Preview

Can the Jayhawks match their performance in Stillwater when they face the Cowboys in Lawrence?

Before hosting Houston in Lawrence for the first time as members of the Big 12, the Kansas Jayhawks must first take care of business in the second matchup against Oklahoma State on Tuesday.

Opponent Overview

Team: Oklahoma State

Record: 9-11

KenPom: 118

Line: KU -16.5

Team Form

The Cowboys got their first conference win of the season on Saturday when they beat West Virginia at home, 70-66. The victory broke a six-game losing streak, though the last of those two were competitive. OSU only lost by four in Manhattan against Kansas State and then fell by five at home to TCU. And the schedule doesn’t get any easier. Oklahoma State plays at Kansas, at Houston, and at Oklahoma as three of its next four games.

Players to Watch

Bryce Thompson shows up against his former team. In the first meeting a few weeks ago, Thompson had a team-high 20 points while going 7-8 from the line. The only issue was his foul trouble. This is a trend for Thompson. Last year, he scored 23 and 17 points against KU and the year before it was eight and 11 points.

Javon Small continues to lead the Cowboys in scoring. He was held in check against Kansas in Stillwater – only scoring two points and turning it over five times, though he did have seven assists – but he’s scored 11, 15, and 15 in the three games since. Freshman Brandon Garrison, who battled with Hunter Dickinson down low, is coming off a 20-point performance against West Virginia, which tied a career high.

Matchups to Watch

Oklahoma State was the rare opponent not to go berserk from three against Kansas in the past month. The Cowboys made just six of 21 from downtown in the first meeting. But OSU is still capable. The Kansas and Baylor games were the only two where OSU made fewer than seven threes in a game.

A three-point barrage would be someone negated if OSU continues to turn the ball over like it does. The Cowboys give it up on 19.5% of possessions, which is among the worst in the country. They had 14 in the first KU matchup but have cleaned it up at times. OSU only had five turnovers against TCU in a narrow loss last week before turning it over 13 times on Saturday.

The biggest focal point for the OK State defense has to be guarding the paint better. Kansas shot 69% from inside the arc in the first go-around, with KJ Adams and Hunter Dickinson combining to shoot 17-22 from two-point range. If Kansas can score at will from the paint like it did in Stillwater, a lot is going to have to go right for OSU to win.

Prediction

Kansas hasn’t always had it easy facing the Cowboys at home. While the Jayhawks have won the last five, only one of those was by more than 14 points and OSU was only ranked in one of those games. And if you remember, last year’s meeting was a closer-than-expected 69-67 victory for KU.

For Oklahoma State to win, it needs to do three things:

• Make 10 or more threes
• Turn it over fewer than 15 times
• Hold KU to 50% or less shooting from two-point range

I think OSU can do two of the three, but the Cowboys haven’t proven to do all three. And Dickinson and Adams were so dominant in Stillwater that I like Kansas to win easily, but OSU to barely cover.

Kansas 80, Oklahoma State 67

Record ATS: 11-9

Record Straight Up: 16-4

(Last game: Iowa State 79, Kansas 75)