Oklahoma State vs Kansas Basketball Preview: Big 12 Play Opens to End 2022
Kansas is sending 2022 out by welcoming in Big 12 play on Saturday and Oklahoma State is the first conference foe to make the trip to Allen Fieldhouse.
Opponent Overview
Team: Oklahoma State
Record: 8-4
KenPom: 30
Line: TBD
Team Form
Good luck finding a night off in this league. Even at 8-4 and not ranked, the Cowboys are a formidable opponent who can play spoiler on any given day.
Three of the Cowboys’ four losses are respectable. OSU lost to undefeated and No. 2 UCONN by 10 on the road, by five to Virginia Tech on a neutral, and by four to UCF in overtime on a neutral. Only a one-point home loss to Southern Illinois is a blemish on the resume, but not a terrible one. Three of those teams are ranked in the top 56 in KenPom and Southern Illinois is 115.
The downside is Oklahoma State doesn’t have any signature wins so far. The only two top-100 KenPom wins are against No. 80 Sam Houston State (65-51 at home) and No. 94 Wichita State (59-49 on the road).
Players to Watch
The Cowboys are a veteran and balanced group with some players Kansas fans should be familiar with. Senior Avery Anderson is the Pokes’ leading scorer at 12.2 points per game and is leading the team in assists at 3.3 assists per game. This is Anderson’s fourth year in the OSU program and third straight season he is averaging 12 ppg. But he is not a threat from the outside, as he’s shooting just 23% from three.
Former Jayhawk Bryce Thompson is second on the team in scoring at 11.5 ppg and the only other Cowboy averaging double figures. The area of his game that has improved the most is his three-point shooting, which is up to 35.7% so far this year – from 29% a year ago – while averaging nearly five threes a game. But in contrast, his two-point shooting (41.3%) and free-throw shooting (52.2%) are both down compared to last year.
Inside, Kansas is going to have to keep Moussa Cisse off the glass. The former AAC All-Freshman member at Memphis is in his second year with OSU and has raised his rebounding numbers from 6.5 a year ago to 10.8 so far this year to go along with 8.6 ppg. That includes three offensive boards per game.
Matchups to Watch
This is going to be a defensive battle inside Allen Fieldhouse. Oklahoma State is holding opponents to 42.5% shooting from two (12th nationally) and 26.9% from 3 (13th nationally) while posting the 17th-best defensive efficiency mark in the country. The Cowboys are also good about using their length, as their 15.5 block percentage is 11th best nationally.
On offense, OSU doesn’t shoot threes particularly well or very often. Instead, the Cowboys live on put-backs, grabbing offensive boards 35% of the time. But turnovers are Oklahoma State’s Achilles heel. OSU turns it over nearly 22% of the time and gives up steals 11.8% of the time.
Just look at Oklahoma State’s losses:
Southern Illinois: 14 OSU turnovers | 10 steals by opponent
UCF: 18 OSU turnovers | 7 steals by opponent
UCONN: 17 OSU turnovers | 8 steals by opponent
Virginia Tech: 17 OSU turnovers | 11 steals by opponent
Prediction
We know what we’re getting with a Mike Boyton-coached Oklahoma State team. The Cowboys will be a scrappy, defensive-minded group that won’t roll over. That has been evident in the fact that all four losses have come by 10 points or less.
The Jayhawks will need more energy and enthusiasm than they had against Harvard to keep OSU off the glass and limit them to one shot per possession. This includes the wings, as the Cowboys are not overly tall in the post but have length and athleticism at every position.
The X-factor is if Kansas can force steals and get out in transition and score on fast breaks. This is an appealing matchup for not only Dajuan Harris, but also Kevin McCullar, who are both great at turning mistakes into easy layups and open threes on the offensive end. And given that Kansas shoots better at home, give me OSU to keep it close but the Jayhawks to ultimately win by a semi-comfortable margin.
Kansas 73, Oklahoma State 64
Prediction record
7-5 ATS
Last game – Prediction: 81-63 KU | Actual: 68-54 KU
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