Kansas at West Virginia: Preview and Players to Watch
Overview
The first time Kansas faced West Virginia this year, it was the first glimpse of true domination we'd seen from the team in Big 12 play. The first half was up-and-down, with the Jayhawks leading by a single point going into halftime. In the second half, KU erupted, continuing an 18-2 run that actually began before the break, and outscoring the Mountaineers 52-28 in the final 20.
Since that meeting, things haven't gone especially well for the Mountaineers. Coming into that game they were 13-2 and up to 39th in KenPom. They've won just a single game (at home against 9th place Iowa State) since then, sitting at 3-9 in league play with their goals more realistically fitting in the NIT than the Big Dance. They rank 63rd in KenPom's ratings now, with their offense rated 94th while the defense is a more respectable 37th. Yes, it's another Big 12 opponent that plays much better defense than offense (...sort of...more on that later).
Strangely, West Virginia is a poor 3 point shooting team for the season, but actually sit 4th in the league through Big 12 play at 32.8% (part of this is a lack of outside shooting in the Big 12). They rank dead last in two point shooting though, and don't like shooting a lot of threes. The main thing saving their offense from horrific numbers is their ability to the get to the line (2nd in the Big 12 in free throw rate), and hit their shots at the stripe (1st, hitting roughly 80%). Their turnover rate is pretty average.
Defensively, they won't force many turnovers, which is always a good thing to see in a KU opponent. They don't rebound particularly well on either side, they foul too much, and aside from blocking a lot of shots, haven't done much that stands out on the defensive side of the ball. Now, back to earlier when I said KenPom rates their defense higher than their offense. That's true. But their defense has been in a tailspin since conference play began. They give up a league-worst 1.05 points per possession and again, really the only highlight is the number of shots they block (1st in the Big 12 with a 13.2% block rate), and despite that they're middle of the pack in overall 2 point defense. It's a team without much of an identity, and they've fallen apart down the stretch.
Players to Watch
Taz Sherman, 6'4 senior guard
Sherman has an incredibly high usage rate and is the team's leading scorer. Sherman isn't a bad shooter but any means, but his volume is probably a little higher than his efficiency should warrant. He's hit 34% of his 137 attempts from three, while making 48% of his twos. Where he can really do extra damage is at the free throw line, a place he finds himself often, and where he's hitting a very respectable 78.6%.
Gabe Osabuohein, 6'7 senior forward
I'm including Osabuohein even though it's unclear whether he'll play. The senior big man is the team's best rebounder and shot blocker by rate, but doesn't play a ton of minutes. He was a healthy scratch from their last game due to a confrontation between him and coach Bob Huggins, following an ejection from their game against Oklahoma State. Afterward, Huggins had some unclear coach speak about the senior's playing status moving forward.
Sean McNeil, 6'3 senior guard
McNeil is the team's second leading scorer and top three point shooter. He's hit about 40% of 116 attempts from range, and also makes 83% from the line. He also rarely turns it over or fouls. Not the most dangerous player on the court, but a solid senior player who has the potential to put up a big game here and there.
Prediction
Depending on how you look at it, you could make a case for the Mountaineers being more dangerous than their 3-9 Big 12 record suggests, or for this being a team in a tailspin, and possibly the worst in the conference. KenPom lists Kansas as a 6 point favorite. Part of me thinks KU should easily win by more, but this is game is in Morgantown, and has an 8pm local start time on a Saturday night. Since KU is going to be most Big 12 teams' biggest draw, this could easily turn into a formidable environment, especially since Kansas doesn't always come out looking the way we expect them to this season. I'll say this one stays close, but KU ekes out a road win.
Kansas 79, West Virginia 74
