North Carolina vs Kansas: National Championship Game Preview & Players to Watch

A quick preview of tonight's opponent as the Jayhawks are playing for a national title in New Orleans.

Contents

1. Overview
2. Players to Watch
3. Prediction

For the first time since 2012, the Jayhawks are playing for a shot at the national title. This time around, there's no juggernaut Kentucky team awaiting them, but there is a North Carolina team that's been on fire of late, even if few would have expected them to be here a few weeks ago when they entered the tournament as an 8 seed.

Overview

As the national sports media might have mentioned over the weekend, North Carolina punched their ticket to the title game by ending Duke's season and Coach K's career Saturday night in a back-and-forth contest. Duke helped lose that game by shooting 5-22 (22.7%) from three, but they also allowed North Carolina to grab about 40% of their own missed shots, while the Tar Heels shot 10-26 (38.5%) from deep. That, along with some big missed free throws, sealed the deal in favor of UNC.

In terms of style, UNC doesn't do much differently from what Roy's recent UNC teams had been doing (and to an extent, what he did all the way back to the Kansas days). North Carolina plays up-tempo basketball, despite playing with a very thin bench. They don't turn in over much offensively, but they won't force many TOs on the other side, either. They want to get the ball and score, and if they miss, they're going to crash the glass to try for a second shot. They're only mediocre from two at 50.6%, but grabbing over 31% of your misses can help with that. Though they shoot only an average volume of threes, they do shoot them well, at 36.2% for the team, which lands them in the top 50 nationally.

Their defense isn't quite the strength their offense is, ranking 39th in KenPom's adjusted efficiency rating, as opposed to the offense's 18th. Again, they won't turn you over much, and they're above average but not dominant in shot defense (allowing 47.6%). That said, you'd better make your first shot, because they'll do all they can to assure you won't get another. This is the second best defensive rebounding team in D1, allowing teams to grab just 21.6% of their misses. A big game from David McCormack would go a long way toward disrupting what UNC wants to do. But don't assume you can get their short roster into foul trouble, because they're top 10 in avoiding sending their opponents to the free throw line.

Players to Watch

Caleb Love, 6'4 sophomore guard

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If you've been following UNC's tournament run, you've heard Love's name (and probably a few too many puns to go along with it). He's averaging 20ppg across their first 5 tournament games, and he's got the ultimate green light. He's hit 37% of his 250 three point attempts this year, and he's put up double digit attempts in four of their five tournament contests.

Armando Bacot, 6'10 junior center

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Bacot is the main reason for UNC's gaudy rebounding numbers. Against Duke he grabbed 21 of them. It would be ideal to get Bacot into foul trouble as rebounders and rim protectors are hard to find once you get past him on the roster, but he's been good at avoiding that so far this year, playing a lot of minutes for a 240 pound big man on a team that plays fast. 

He did tweak an ankle toward the end of Duke game, but after a short trip to the locker room, was able to come back and finish them off. All we know in terms of his injury status is that he is playing tonight.

Brady Manek, 6'9 senior forward

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Many KU fans will remember Manek as the tall, gangly guy who could shoot threes at Oklahoma. The description still fits, but Manek is more than a spot up jump shooter now, as UNC has no problem having him fire up threes off of screens and motion. He's hitting 40% of his 237 three point attempts this year, and will dish out an assist or two as well, making him a difficult guy to guard at his height.

Prediction

I said the Villanova game would come down to who made shots. Villanova shot well from three, but struggled from two while Kansas hit 54% of their threes. KU advanced. I think UNC will likely make this a high-shot volume game and it will once again come down to who is hitting and who isn't. That makes it a hard game to predict. I'll just guess that Manek and Love hit a couple big threes down the stretch and this one ends up a victory for the Tar Heels.

North Carolina 79, Kansas 77