TCU vs Kansas Basketball Preview

Big 12 play kicks off in Allen Fieldhouse as the Jayhawks face the Horned Frogs.

It’s the time of the season where it gets a bit more serious and we find out how good a lot of teams are. Conference play is here. And it’s a new-look Big 12 for the Kansas Jayhawks before another new look next year. But what hasn’t changed is that the Big 12 is up at the top for the toughest league in the country and being crowned champion in March will be no easy feat.

Kansas’ first test in its quest for another Big 12 title is Saturday when the TCU Horned Frogs come to visit.

Opponent Overview

Team: TCU

Record: 11-2

KenPom: 34

Line: TBD (KU -7 on KenPom)

Team Form

How good is TCU this year? It’s hard to tell at this point. The record and metrics are good, and that’s not nothing, but there’s not much there from a resume perspective.

The Horned Frogs have played two games against top-100 KenPom teams (No. 24 Clemson and No. 39 Nevada) and lost them both on neutral courts by a combined 21 points. Which means TCU’s best win is Arizona State (113 in KenPom). It’s one of only three wins TCU has all year against a team higher than 242 in KenPom.

KU fans have wanted the Jayhawks to blow out bad teams by a larger margin, which is what the Horned Frogs have mostly done this year. But it still doesn’t tell us much about this team. And remember, a missed out-of-bounds call on a buzzer-beater allowed TCU to avoid getting upset by Georgetown.

Players to Watch

Mike Miles is no longer in Fort Worth, and neither is Damion Baugh. But senior Eammual Miller has now taken the reins and leads the team in points (16) and rebounds (six) with nearly three assists while shooting 54% from the field. The other returners from last year playing major roles are JaKobe Coles, Micah Peavy, and to a lesser extent, Chuck O’Bannon. Coles is averaging 11.4 points in just less than 24 minutes per game. Though, the 6-7 junior has struggled of late, scoring six or fewer points in four of his last five games. Peavy is also averaging 11.4 per game — up from seven a year ago — and has played to that consistently with 10 double-digit scoring games this year already.

The major pickup this offseason by Jamie Dixon was senior guard Jameer Nelson Jr, who came from Delaware after two years and George Washington the two years before that. Nelson is also averaging 11 points per game and 3.4 assists, but he’s not much of a threat from deep, only shooting 26% from three. And of course, there’s the former Jayhawk making his return to Allen Fieldhouse in Ernest Udeh. Udeh is averaging 4.4 points and 5.5 rebounds, but while he has started every game, he only plays 15.5 minutes. And it’s not due to foul trouble, as he only averages 2.1 per game. TCU’s last game was Udeh’s first double-double of the year with 13 points and 18 rebounds.

Matchups to Watch

If you like high-possession games, you might be in luck. Because the pace could be fast in this one. TCU plays at the fourth fastest offensive tempo in the country, and Kansas is still pretty quick at 51st. And like Kansas, TCU rarely takes threes and wants to instead score inside. The Horned Frogs only attempt threes 28.3% of the time (340th nationally) and are shooting 56.7% from two. This is a game where both teams are in the top 100 in two-point percentage both offensively and defensively. Honestly, outside of a couple areas, these are two similar offensive styles.

TCU’s frantic pace is largely due to forcing turnovers through steals, where the Horned Frogs rank in the top 13 in both turnover and steal percentage. But they also turn it over quite a bit themselves, so whoever can limit offensive live-ball turnovers and capitalize on the other’s mistakes with baskets has a good chance here. Another battle Kansas is going to have to win is on the glass, as TCU is great at grabbing offensive rebounds.

The question for TCU is can it make threes? The Horned Frogs are only shooting 32.8% on the year as a team and in their two losses, they went 3-16 against Clemson and 3-14 against Nevada. But in the game in AFH last year, when TCU pulled the upset and was the only team to win in Lawrence all year, the Horned Frogs shot 8-15 from three despite only making 31% on the year.

Prediction

This could be a challenging matchup for Kansas if the Jayhawks don’t come to play. But the combination of having last year’s upset hanging over them and coming off a strong performance against Wichita State should be in KU’s favor. It’s just difficult to predict what we get from this TCU team that hasn’t been tested to this level. The Horned Frogs’ only road games this season were at Georgetown and at Hawaii during the Diamond Head Classic.

It’s hard to see Kansas dropping the first conference game of the year at home and TCU scoring enough to get the win here, but I do think it could be a fairly close, competitive game.

Kansas 78, TCU 69

Record ATS: 8-5

Record Straight Up: 12-1

(Last game: Kansas 86, Wichita State 67)