Tennessee vs Kansas Preview
Not much went right for the Kansas Jayhawks against No. 4 Marquette in semifinals of the Maui Invitational. Now KU must bounce back quickly if it wants to avoid losing two straight as it faces another top-10 team in the Tennessee Volunteers for third place. And it’s a second former Texas coach on the other sideline as Rick Barnes leads to Vols.
Opponent Overview
Team: Tennessee
Record: 4-1
KenPom: 7
Line: KU -1.5
Team Form
Tennessee took care of Syracuse in the first game of this event before narrowly losing to Purdue in an ugly game that featured 51 personal fouls and 78 free throws. The best win on the Vols resume is by 10 on the road against Wisconsin, though the Badgers are a bit of a mystery. Computer numbers love them (Wisconsin is No. 21 in KenPom and No. 36 in Torvik) but the Badgers also lost to Providence and didn’t have a quality win before beating Virginia this week.
Players to Watch
Tennessee found an answer to its scoring woes and his name is Dalton Knecht. The Northern Colorado transfer is averaging a team-high 18.4 points per game while shooting 43.5% from three. And he’s currently No. 9 in KenPom’s Player of the Year list. Another impactful transfer has been Jordan Gainey, who came from South Carolina Upstate and is second on the team in scoring at 11.4 ppg.
The other major players are familiar faces to college basketball fans. Santiago Vescovi is again leading the offense and is adept at getting to the line. Josiah-Jordan James has had an excellent start to the Maui tournament, recording a 15-point, 11-rebound double-double against Syracuse, but struggled against Purdue, scoring just three points on 1-4 shooting from three.
Matchups to Watch
The Kansas offense will again have its hands full trying to score. Tennessee is first in the country in defensive efficiency, holding teams to just 26% shooting from deep and 41.8% from two-point range. The downside of the defense, as we saw on Tuesday, is that the Vols commit a lot of fouls. Opponents are taking free throws at a 40% rate compared to field-goal attempts, putting the Vols’ defense at 280th nationally in that category. But UT has gotten a bit lucky in this department, as opponents are only hitting 59% of their free throws.
Tennessee is a less extreme version of Marquette when it comes to turnovers. The Vols do a good job of taking care of the ball, ranking in the top 25 nationally and turning teams over at a top-100 rate nationally.
Where Kansas will need to improve from yesterday to today is in the paint. Scoring inside is Tennessee’s achilles heel, as the Vols are only making 48.6% of two-point attempts. Can KU get Hunter Dickinson going and attack the basket, while allowing fewer driving layups and floaters as it did against Marquette?
Prediction
How does Kansas respond to its first setback of the season? I would imagine Bill Self has used the past 16 hours as an opportunity to remind them that they were soft and need to step up the intensity. Dickinson, Kevin McCullar, and Dajuan Harris are competitors and will be ready to go, but who else is going to step up for the Jayhawks? Johnny Furphy has been solid in stretches and Jamari McDowell looks better than anyone expected so far, but Kansas is going to need more from its two guard and bench to beat another top-10 team.
Kansas has to attack the rim, finishing better than it did Tuesday and also drawing fouls against a team happy to deliver. But KU only making 9-16 from the line won’t cut it. Meanwhile, Tennessee, like Marquette, isn’t an outstanding offensive rebounding team, so the Jayhawks will have to keep them off the glass and prevent second chances.
There’s likely a contingent of fans who are down on KU after yesterday’s performance. But there are going to be days when the ball doesn’t go in and nothing seems to go right. Kansas will have to stop beating itself on the offensive end, but I think we see some fight and a respectable 2-1 finish for the Jayhawks in Maui.
Kansas 72, Tennessee 68
Record ATS: 4-1
Record Straight Up: 4-1
(Last game: Marquette 73, Kansas 59)
