Wichita State vs Kansas Preview

The Jayhawks face the Shockers in KC for a final non-conference battle before Big 12 play begins.

Back from Christmas break, the Kansas Jayhawks have one final test both in 2023 and in the non-conference when it heads up to Kansas City for a contest against Wichita State. This will be the 13th matchup between the Jayhawks and Shockers, with KU holding a 9-3 record all time.

Opponent Overview

Team: Wichita State

Record: 8-4

KenPom: 117

Line: TBD (KU -12 on KenPom)

Team Form

The Shockers have not challenged themselves overly aggressively in the non-con portion of the season. This game will be WSU’s first against a top-50 KenPom opponent. Wichita State has played a couple of decent teams, four of which are in the top 100 in KenPom, but has lost three of them (Liberty, Missouri, and K-State) all by nine or more points. The other loss was to South Dakota State by 10 at home.

The best win on the Shockers’ resume so far is probably a 12-point win over Richmond (7-5 and 99th in KenPom) at home, followed by a one-point win at home against Southern Illinois.

Players to Watch

Colby Rogers, a two-time transfer from Cal Poly and Siena, has been on a tear of late for the Shockers, scoring 19, 17, 21, and 20 in his previous four games before being held to 12 against K-State in his most recent game. Still, he’s averaging a team-high 16.8 points and also grabs four rebounds per game. He has four 20-point games on the season, including a high of 28 against Saint Louis in November. And Kansas will have to know where he is on the perimeter because he’s WSU’s best three-point shooter at 42% on 83 attempts so far this year.

Rogers’ counterpart on the wing is Xavier Bell, who has put up very similar numbers to Rogers in his last five games and is averaging 14.7 on the season. But while Rogers shoots more from deep, Bell only averages 2.5 threes per game, and instead looks to score inside the arc. The Shockers’ point guard is Miami transfer Harlond Beverly, who is averaging 10.3 points per game along with a team-high 3.7 assists and nearly two steals per game.

Down low, Wichita State has a pair of 6-11, 240-pound big men that Hunter Dickinson and KJ Adams will have to deal with. Kenny Pohto is the more productive of the two, averaging 12 points and eight boards per game. Pohto will step out and take a couple of threes per game, though he’s shooting just 24%. But he’s more dangerous on the offensive boards, grabbing nearly three per game. Meanwhile, Quincy Ballard has only attempted one three this season (he missed it), but he’s shooting 66% from the field and is also dangerous on the glass, though not as much so as Pohto.

Matchups to Watch

Wichita State is one of the bigger rosters nationally, ranking 35th in average height, and that shows up most on the boards. WSU is 67th in offensive rebounding percentage (33.7%) and 68th in keeping opponents off the offensive glass (26%). But while the interior defense is solid, the Shockers are only shooting 50% from two, which is right in the middle of the pack nationally. Though maybe most impressive is that Wichita State is great at blocking shots while not fouling.

Outside of Rogers, WSU doesn’t take a ton of threes per game, and for good reason as it is only shooting 30.5% from deep. Though how many times have we said that exact statement about a Kansas opponent only for them to get hot against the Jayhawks? Against KSU in its last game, Wichita State hit just 3-19 from deep and was a slightly better 8-28 against Missouri. But WSU has succeeded so far this year in keeping opponents from hitting many threes, as teams are shooting just 29.6% from deep against the Shockers.

One area to watch: how well can Kansas take care of the ball? WSU does not have a defense that places an emphasis on forcing turnovers. Its defensive turnover percentage is 323rd nationally and its defensive steal rate is 295th at just 7.8%. KU has to avoid unforced turnovers, because WSU doesn’t put a ton of pressure on the ball.

Prediction

The timing of this game is going to make for a fascinating watch. Not only is it the final game for Kansas before Big 12 play begins, but it’s coming off a break in which Dickinson and Bill Self mentioned it allowed some of the players to come back in a better headspace:

Dickinson on his head space: he said he really needed a break and was frustrated with his play.

Specifically, the way teams were playing him and the break allowed him to reset/ fix that. #Kubball

— Shreyas Laddha (@shre98) December 28, 2023

Meanwhile, Johnny Furphy is back from Australia and Nick Timberlake is coming off his best game as a Jayhawk. Timberlake’s continued confidence from three would certainly help here.How long will it take KU to shake off the rust of not playing for more than a week and can they exert control over a team it should beat?

I like Kansas to win by double digits and have confidence heading into a conference opener against TCU.

Kansas 80, Wichita State 66

Record ATS: 7-5

Record Straight Up: 11-1

(Last game: Kansas 75, Yale 60)