Yale vs Kansas Preview

The Jayhawks have one final test before a short Christmas break.

The Kansas Jayhawks have traditionally gone on the road for the final game before the short Christmas break, but this year KU gets the normally worrisome game — where players sometimes look ahead to getting home to their families and make themselves susceptible to upset — at home in Allen Fieldhouse. The opponent is a dangerous Yale team that Kansas will have to take seriously if it wants to go into Christmas on a high note.

Opponent Overview

Team: Yale

Record: 7-5

KenPom: 110

Line: KU -15.5

Team Form

Allen Fieldhouse isn’t the first tough environment the Bulldogs have faced this year. Back in November, Yale went to Gonzaga and lost 86-71 (it was a 47-42 game at the half). And it has four other losses on the year, but they’ve not been decisive. The four non-Gonzaga losses have come by a combined 19 points (and actually the biggest loss of 10 came in overtime; the other three were by four, four, and one). Meanwhile, Yale has wins over Loyola Marymount and Colgate, which are both in the top 130 at KenPom.

KenPom has Yale projected to finish second in the Ivy League behind only surging Princeton.

Players to Watch

Hunter Dickinson is going to have his hands full on Friday. Yale’s center is 7-0, 255-pounder Danny Wolf, who not only is averaging 13.4 points and nine rebounds, but can shoot and pass, hitting 12 of 25 threes and dishing out 26 assists in 12 games. He also averages two offensive boards per game.

Yale’s leading scorer is 6-4 junior Ben Mbeng at 13.6 per game, but he’s got the potential for more, which was shown when we dropped three-straight 18-point games against Rhode Island, Stony Brook, and Vermont. Mbeng is shooting 56% from inside the arc but has struggled from deep, making just 26% from three on 4.5 attempts per game. Also averaging double figures are Matt Knowling (11.5) and John Poulakidas (11).

Matchups to Watch

The first aspect of this matchup that jumps out is the contrast in tempo. Kansas plays fast, averaging 16 seconds per possession on offense (51st fastest nationally) while Yale plays slow at 18.9 seconds (328th nationally). And it’s difficult to speed the Bulldogs up because they do a solid job of taking care of the ball, only turning it over 14.4% of the time, which is 28th best in the country.

Yale is a decent three-point shooting team at 34.5%, it just doesn’t take a ton (sound familiar?). Only ⅓ of Yale’s field goal attempts are from behind the arc, accounting for just 28.4% of its points. The Bulldogs also struggle to get to the line, though they do shoot 75.7% as a team when they make it to the charity stripe. Most of the offense is inside the arc, where Yale is shooting 48.9% (219th nationally).

By contrast, Yale’s defense is giving up a higher percentage from three than two, and it also doesn’t turn teams over much on live-ball plays (Yale’s steal percentage is 263rd). Yale is holding teams to a respectable 48.8% from two, though when playing Gonzaga, another efficient two-point offense, Yale let the Zags make 56% of their twos. It will be interesting to see if Kansas takes more attempts from three or continues to pound it inside. Bill Self even stated in his Thursday press conference that more threes could be in the cards:

Self: I know when it comes down to it --- we need to shoot the ball more with more frequency. #Kubball

He adds that Jamari has played well and can add to that.

— Shreyas Laddha (@shre98) December 21, 2023

Though it’s worth pointing out that even though they are shooting well from deep against Yale, teams aren’t just settling for a ton of threes against the Bulldogs. Opponents are taking 38.5% of their field goal attempts from three. For context, Kansas opponents are taking 40.9% of shots from deep.

Prediction

Yale is the type of disciplined team that could maintain competitiveness in a game like this. They’re big (36th in average height) and take care of the ball. It’s just going to take some hot shooting, which we know can happen inside AFH. But if Kansas doesn’t come out with intensity, the Jayhawks could be in for a fight.

The other aspect to watch is the fact that Johnny Furphy will not be in attendance as he is back in Australia for a pre-scheduled family event that the program has known about for months. Which means there could be a potentially bigger role for Jamari McDowell and Nick Timberlake. Will either of them step up and have a big game?

I’m not sure any team is winning in Allen Fieldhouse this year, but also the factors involved make me hesitant to take a big points spread. KU hasn’t won by more than 14 points in the game before Christmas since December 21, 2017 when Kansas beat Stanford 75-54 in San Francisco. I’ll say Yale barely covers the spread, but the game is never really in doubt.

Kansas 77, Yale 64

Record ATS: 6-5

Record Straight Up: 10-1

(Last game: Kansas 75, Indiana 71)