62 Days Until Kansas Football: Duke Preview

The Blue Devils will come to Lawrence in September with a new coach and a lot of question marks.

The words Duke vs. Kansas instantly injects fans with a certain emotion. When the two battle on the hardwood, it’s usually a battle for supremacy: rankings, historic standing, Final Four berths…

It’s a different but still interesting battle on the gridiron. Two teams battling for respect and a view higher up than the bottom of the conference standings.

Pride and progress will be on the line on September 24 when the Blue Devils travel to Lawrence to take on the Jayhawks.

Pre-Game Notes

The Champions Classic ensures Duke and Kansas see each other on the schedule at least every three years, but in football, the two programs have met only three times total.

The first meeting was in 2009 when Kansas was ranked No. 22 and walloped Duke at home 44-16. The first meeting in Durham took place in 2014 and this time it was Duke destroying the Jayhawks 41-3. As you likely remember, the most recent matchup was a season ago when Duke won a shootout 52-33 in a game that was neck-and-neck (28-27) in the third quarter.

Duke’s win against Kansas was its last of the season, as the Blue Devils went on to lose their last eight to end the season at 3-9. It would prove to be David Cutcliffe’s final season in Durham as well after 14 years and a 77-97 record. Cutcliffe first got Duke ranked in the AP poll in 2013 (four of his teams would end up ranked at some point), which was the first time the program had been ranked since 1994. In fact, Duke was only ranked at some point in the season three times between the 50-year span of 1963 and 2013. For comparison, Kansas was ranked in 11 seasons from 1963-2013.

Mike Plank Four-Down Scouting Report

First Down

Replacing Cutcliffe is Mike Elko, who is a head coach for the first time after being a defensive coordinator for most of his career. Elko came from Texas A&M where he was the defensive coordinator and safeties coach for four seasons and before that was at Notre Dame, Wake Forest, and Bowling Green.

Second Down

The Blue Devils will also have a new quarterback under center in 2022. Gunnar Holmberg, who threw for 328 yards and ran for 88 yards and four touchdowns against KU, transferred to Florida International. Which means that two freshmen quarterbacks who combined for 81 pass attempts in 2021 will be competing for the starting spot.

Third Down

Kansas fans will be happy to know that running back Mataeo Durant—who diced up the Jayhawks for 124 yards and a touchdown on the ground and 62 yards receiving on three catches on his way to an All-ACC season—is now in the NFL. And the leading returning rusher? It’s Jordan Moore, who is one of the two sophomore QBs looking to replace Holmberg and who had 221 yards on the ground in 2021.

Fourth Down

Jason Bean played the entirety of the game last year at QB for Kansas, but Jalon Daniels should be able to let it fly this year. Just look at these numbers from Nicole Auerbach’s article for The Athletic’s State of the Program series: “Of the 19 defensive backs who played a defensive snap for Duke last season, 11 are no longer on the roster. Those 11 departures include seven of Duke’s top nine DBs in terms of defensive snaps played in 2021 and the entire top five.”

Matchup On Paper

It’s difficult to know how much can be gleaned from last year’s numbers given how much turnover took place at Duke both in the coaching staff and on the field. Ironically enough, turnovers are one aspect the Blue Devils will need to clean up—or really, how much it shot itself in the foot in general. Duke averaged 1.8 turnovers per game and committed 6.5 penalties for 61.7 yards last year. Kansas, meanwhile, was much improved in these areas in 2021, averaging just 1.1 turnovers and 4.1 penalties for 33.7 yards.

Given new coach Mike Elko’s pedigree, the Duke defense should be improved. After all, Elko’s Aggies last year were the No. 3-ranked scoring defense. But that’s a big ask to have that much progress take place by late September given that last year the Blue Devils gave up 39.8 points per game, which was fourth worst in all of D-I.

Way-to-Early Trend Lines

Duke had a rough end to the 2021 season. It went 0-5 against the spread in its final five games, even though the smallest line was +12 and there were three times when Duke was 20+ point underdogs. This was because the defense was so dreadful, so if there is any improvement there, those numbers should be closer. The question is if Duke can score points at a good enough clip. 

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