95 Days Until Kansas Football: Breaking Down the Jayhawks' 2024 Returning Production

What does the player consistency in Lawrence look like compared to other teams?

Sep 23, 2023; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Kansas Jayhawks quarterback Jalon Daniels (6) throws a pass during the first half against the Brigham Young Cougars at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

One of the more interesting topics I’ve found for the past few springs is the exercise from ESPN’s Bill Connelly that looks at every team’s returning production on both sides of the ball. Last year, the Kansas Jayhawks were all the way up at No. 2 on the list, with 85% total returning from 2022. 

It’s important to note that this is not just accounting for starters, it’s production. Though 247 Sports’ Cody Nagel did a similar exercise with starters, and Kansas came in tied for 32nd with 13 starters returning – six on offense, six on defense, and one on special teams – along with 11 other programs including Arizona, Oklahoma, UCF, LSU, and Michigan State. Last year, the Jayhawks brought back 17 starters on offense and defense. 

For Connelly in returning production, Kansas sits at No. 78 out of 134 teams with 59% of production returning (62% on offense and 56% on defense). That’s one percentage point higher than Kansas State, for what it’s worth. 

How to interpret returning production 

In his article, which you can read if you are an ESPN+ subscriber, Connelly makes it clear that this is a prediction of who will be good and who will be bad. And this is a crucial distinction. Instead, he writes that “High or low returning production percentages correlate well with improvement and regression.” 

So, when Kansas was coming off a 6-7 season in 2022 and looking to take the next step, that high returning production made it more likely (or easier) that Kansas could take the next step, which it did. And in the age of the transfer portal, it’s incredibly difficult to have sustained returning production multiple years in a row. Here is where the top five in this year’s returning production came in for 2023:

1. Virginia Tech – 38th
2. Iowa State – 67th
3. Nebraska – 39th
4. Oklahoma State – 89th
5. Virginia – 116th

Similarly, Florida State, which was No. 1 last year, is down at No. 83 this year. So many factors come into play with the turnover of a program from year to year that it’s not a surprise that Kansas is more in the middle of the pack. 

Where Kansas stands

The benefit of returning production is that you have players who both know the system and are comfortable playing together, shortening the learning curve coming into a season. But obviously, not all returners are created equal. Having a veteran quarterback in the system is much more beneficial – as a general rule – than a linebacker or receiver. And whole units still intact are more valuable than one returner in each level having to adjust to new teammates. 

For KU, it’s the star quarterback (Jalon Daniels) who was injured most of last season, a two-headed monster at running back (Devin Neal and Daniel Hishaw), and three complementary threats at receiver (Luke Grimm, Quentin Skinner, and Lawrence Arnold) that make up most of this production, not to mention a secondary with Cobee Bryant, Mello Dotson, and OJ Burroughs back. Kenny Logan is a massive leadership loss on defense, and the KU offensive line probably saw the biggest overhaul, but there are enough pieces in place to not expect a regression. There are multiple players on this list that can compete for All-Big 12 or All-American honors on both sides of the ball. 

And then you get to the transfer portal. Lance Leipold did an incredible job retaining talent, as Kansas led the country along with BYU, Oklahoma State, Nebraska, and Iowa at only having nine scholarship players hit the portal during this transfer cycle since August 1, 2023. Then you have the additional pass rushers of Bai Jobe and additional support on the offensive line with Michigan transfer Amir Herring (replacing NFL-bound Austin booker and Dominic Puni) as the latest additions of a solid recruiting and transfer class. 

This is the year for Kansas to take that next step and compete for a conference title and expanded playoff spot before all of this talent that has been in Lawrence for three-plus years heads to the next level.