Big 12 Power Rankings - Week 5: Seeing Some Separation
Editor's Note: To keep the numbering consistent with most of the main polls/power rankings on the internet, we've changed our titles so that we refer to the upcoming week instead of the week that just happened. Thus, Week 3 was last week's rankings, but this week the rankings are for Week 5.
It still seems early in the season, but we are starting to see some separation in the conference between teams that can compete for a spot in Arlington, those that are looking for a bowl game appearance, and then the bottom group that is just waiting for next season. So let's sort through the teams and see how the conference looks after each team has one conference game under their belt.
Don't think of this as my definitive prediction for the final Big 12 standings, but more of an educated guess about the relative strengths of the teams, without accounting for potential injuries or additional development/regression between now and when the games are played.
You can take a look at last week's rankings here.
1. Texas Longhorns (4-0, 1-0 Big 12, LW: 1, High 1)
Last Week: 38-6 Win at Baylor
Up Next: vs Kansas (4-0)
The analytics love the Longhorns, but there are still some unanswered questions. The defense is especially highly rated, but there are plenty of questions about the Alabama offense, which is by far the best one that they have played.
They will get a real test this week, with an electric Kansas offense and a much improved defense. If they get a blowout win, then you know they are a national title contender.
2. Kansas Jayhawks (4-0, 1-0 Big 12, LW: 3, High 2)
Last Week: 38-27 Win vs BYU
Up Next: at Texas (4-0)
The BYU test showed that the defensive line is actually good this year. There is still a question about just how good they end up being, but add that defense to an already great offense, and it's hard to limit the ceiling.
3. Oklahoma Sooners (4-0, 1-0 Big 12, LW: 2, High 2)
Last Week: 20-6 Win at Cincinnati
Up Next: vs Iowa State (2-2)
I still don't know what to make of this team. The defense looks a lot better, but they haven't actually played any offense that actually projects to be good this season. And offensive struggles against SMU and Cincinnati give enough doubt that I have to hedge my bets with them.
4. Kansas State Wildcats (3-1, 1-0 Big 12, Last Week: 4, High: 1)
Last Week: 44-31 Win vs UCF
Up Next: BYE
The Wildcats got back on track and put away the UCF Knights, but it took a lot longer than many thought it should have. It's been clear that this is a talented team, but it just feels like they are missing that final gear that would push them into the top three.
5. TCU Horned Frogs (3-1, 1-0 Big 12, LW: 7, High 3)
Last Week: 34-17 Win vs SMU
Up Next: vs West Virginia (3-1)
The Horned Frogs have lived under the radar since their season-opening loss to Colorado, but a good portion of that is because of the lack of marquee opponents. Chandler Morris has been good, but doesn't have the same ceiling as Max Duggan did. The defense hasn't been as dominant as expected, but they are slowly getting back to what I thought they would be at the beginning of the year..
6. West Virginia Mountaineers (3-1, 1-0 Big 12, LW: 9, High 6)
Last Week: 20-13 Win vs Texas Tech
Up Next: at TCU (3-1)
What a turnaround for Neal Brown. On the hot seat coming into the season, he has helmed a turnaround that even the most die-hard West Virginia fans probably didn't imagine. Garrett Greene has played well, but his injury in the Pitt game could be a big storyline the rest of the year. This ranking comes on the strength of that defense, so as long as they can hold up, it will be hard to see them drop too far at all..
7. UCF Knights (3-1, 0-1, Big 12, LW: 5, High 5)
Last Week: 44-31 Loss at Kansas State
Up Next: vs Baylor (1-3)
You could tell in the game against Kansas State that the Knights missed John Rhys Plumlee, who is out with an injury. But the base of the team is good and prepared for the gauntlet that is the Big 12.
8. BYU Cougars (3-1, 0-1, Big 12, LW: 6, High 6)
Last Week: 38-27 Loss at Kansas
Up Next: vs Cincinnati (2-2)
The lack of running game caused them some real issues against the Jayhawks, and I'm not sure what the answer is. The offensive line struggled against the pressure, and that led Kedon Slovis into some poor decisions. That running game needs to develop if the Cougars want to stay in the Big 12 race.
9. Cincinnati Bearcats (2-2, 0-1 Big 12, LW: 10 High 4)
Last Week: 20-6 Loss vs Oklahoma
Up Next: at BYU (3-1)
The offense is bad, but not unfixable. Yes, Oklahoma held them down for a good part of the game. But Cincinnati had plenty of red zone opportunities that ended with some pretty big mistakes, and if they clean those up, the defense is good enough to cause some problems.
10. Iowa State Cyclones (2-2, 1-0 Big 12, LW: 11, High 9)
Last Week: 34-27 Win vs Oklahoma State
Up Next: at Oklahoma (4-0)
Finally some life from the offense. What isn't clear is if that is sustainable improvement or benefitting from an abysmal Oklahoma State team. But it is also a little worrying that those same Cowboys were able to move the ball repeatedly on the defense.
11. Texas Tech Red Raiders (1-3, 0-1 Big 12, LW: 8, High 5)
Last Week: 20-13 Loss at West Virginia
Up Next: vs Houston (2-2)
Another year, another quarterback injury. The Red Raiders haven't found a way to keep a quarterback healthy in a very long time, as Tyler Shough broke his fibula in the game against West Virginia. Behren Morton takes over and will try to maintain the good offensive performances.
12. Houston Cougars (2-2, 0-1 Big 12, LW: 14, High 10)
Last Week: 38-7 Win vs Sam Houston
Up Next: at Texas Tech (1-3)
Houston didn't really do much to deserve moving up here so much as the Cowboys and Bears REALLY messed up. They still struggle on offense, and the defense still has a ways to go in order to keep them close in the upcoming games.
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys (2-2, 0-1 Big 12, LW: 12, High 9)
Last Week: 34-27 Loss at Iowa State
Up Next: BYE
Alan Bowman taking the reins of the offensive seemed to be a great thing, but it's still unclear if this is a temporary boost from being named the starter or if it will persist. And the improvement in the offense is not nearly enough to override the increased worry about the defense after they let an abysmal Iowa State offense to destroy them.
14. Baylor Bears (1-3, 0-1 Big 12, LW: 13, High 8)
Last Week: 38-6 Loss vs Texas
Up Next: at UCF (3-1)
WOOF. Nothing here is good. The QB play is bad, the skill position play is bad, the line play is terrible and the defense is as strong as a wet paper bag. They might be the worst P5 team in the country this year, and it's going to take a lot to change that assessment.
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