Illinois at Kansas Football Preview: Preparing for a Blackout

The Jayhawks host the Illini in a nationally televised contest Friday night to try and move to 2-0 for the second straight year.

Last year in week two, the Kansas Jayhawks went on the road and beat conference foe West Virginia in overtime. This year, it’s another early season power-five matchup, but this time KU is hosting Illinois in a nationally televised (ESPN2) Friday night matchup.

If that wasn’t enough to generate hype, the Jayhawks unveiled new Blackhawk uniforms and will be trying to black out David Booth Memorial Stadium under the lights.

Opponent Overview

Team: Illinois

Record: 1-0

Line: KU -3

Team Form

Illinois shot up to an 8-5 record in 2022 behind one of the best defenses in the country. But defensive coordinator Ryan Walters is now the head coach at Purdue and Devon Witherspoon is off to the NFL.

It could have been week-one jitters, but the Illini didn’t look nearly as stout on defense in their opener against Toledo. Toledo outgained Illinois 416 yards to 374, with 186 yards coming off the ground. The Illini offense put up 30 points and needed every one of them to get past the Rockets 30-28.

Players to Watch

As we broke down in the summer preview of Illinois, the Illini also saw quite a bit of turnover on the offensive side of the ball. Replacing Tommy Devito at quarterback is former Ole Miss QB Luke Altmyer. Altmyer had a solid debut, throwing for 206 yards on 18-26 passing with two touchdowns and a pick. But it was his legs that showed additional value. Altmyer was also the team’s leading rusher in week one, gaining 69 yards on nine carries.

Also in the backfield was a two-man attack of Reggie Love III and Josh McCray. Love was by far the more productive carrier, though no back had more than 12 rushes. The even distribution was similar in the passing game. Pat Bryant (six catches for 59 yards), Isaiah Washington (five for 51), and Casey Washington (four for 54) had nearly equal production, though Bryant stood out as the clear scoring threat, bringing in both touchdown receptions.

The standout from the defense in week one was Miles Scott, who had a huge interception return for a touchdown in the third quarter when Illinois was down 19-7 to go along with six tackles.

Matchups to Watch

What’s real when it comes to Illinois’ rushing defense? Last year, the Illini held opponents to just 100 yards on the ground per game, but Toledo thrashed Illinois for 186 in week one. Brendan Dzwierzynski did a great job earlier this week breaking down KU’s use of motion both in the run game and to open up passing lanes. And we know how strong and deep the Jayhawks’ running back group is. So if there is a team that could take advantage of any potential weakness in the run defense, it’s KU.

Two other areas to watch is how well each defense can get off the field and which team shoots itself in the foot. KU went 6-11 on third down against Missouri State and held the Bears to 1-9. Meanwhile, Toledo converted seven of 15 third downs while Illinois was just 2-8. If Kansas can convert half its third downs, it will put itself in a good position. The other noticeable aspect for Illinois in week one was the penalties. The Illini committed 10 penalties for 100 yards. We’ve seen Lance Leipold bring an aspect of discipline to Kansas, and that was shown with only three penalties for 35 yards.

Prediction

Toledo went 9-5 a year ago and plays in a respectable group-of-five conference (MAC), so I’m not putting too much stock in a slow week-one start for Illinois. But it’s also fair that the program has seen quite a bit of turnover from last year, and it might take a few weeks for these new pieces to gel. Because of that, Kansas might be catching the Illini at a good time.

Obviously, the big question is whether Jalon Daniels is able to go. If he can play and is healthy, that gives the Jayhawks an advantage, but Jason Bean has proven time and again that he is a competent Big 12 quarterback and raises the floor of the team. And as of Thursday morning, football insider Bryson Stricker believes Daniels will the starter:

Jalon Daniels will start at QB for Kansas tomorrow barring a MASSIVE material change.

There is absolutely no discussion internally about who is going to start per a source with knowledge of the situation.

The prodigal son returns. pic.twitter.com/gDWUOorVRl

— Bryson Stricker (@BryBryStrick) September 7, 2023

The Booth is nearing a sellout, Kansas is in special uniforms, and confidence should be high. I don’t know that KU will be able to score 40 or more against this defense, but I’m still going to go with the Jayhawks making enough big plays to come away with a win, cover the spread, and start 2-0 for a second straight season.

Kansas 35, Illinois 28

Record ATS: 1-0 (Last week, Kansas 49, Missouri State 24)