Kansas opens as 7 point favorites over BYU, which shouldn't be a surprise.

The opening line between the Jayhawks and Cougars surprised many online, but a closer look shows why Vegas believes in the home team.

College Football is weird, especially when it comes to betting lines. Last night, the Kansas Jayhawks survived a scare against the Nevada Wolf Pack in a game that many thought should have been a total blowout (myself included). And this weekend's opponent, the BYU Cougars, put up an impressive road victory over the SEC's Arkansas Razorbacks. Seems prime for the Jayhawks to see their first underdog role, right? That's not how the betting world works as the Jayhawks open as 7 point favorites for Saturday's game against the Cougars.

Kansas is a 7-point favorite next Saturday against BYU😳😳 pic.twitter.com/oz0f1MzO21

— Braiden Turner (@bturner23) September 17, 2023

Given the way that the respective fanbases felt about those results, it's not hard to understand why this line feels so strange. The Jayhawks barely held on against one of the worst teams in FBS, while the Cougars went on the road and came back from multiple double-digit deficits to win.

But even a cursory look into the stats tells a different story. Both teams won a great game against a Power Five opponent (Illinois for Kansas, Arkansas for BYU). Both teams dispatched an overmatched low-level opponent with ease (Missouri State for Kansas, Southern Utah for BYU). And both teams struggled in a game they had not business struggling in (Nevada for Kansas, Sam Houston for BYU).

But even with the issues last night for Kansas, they still average almost 200 yards per game more than BYU, including a staggering 140 yard per game difference on the ground. They allow slightly more rushing yards to the opponent (119.3 ypg for KU vs 99.7 ypg for BYU) but significantly less passing yards (152.7 ypg for KU vs 218.7 ypg for BYU).

And then add in just how weird the turnover luck has been for the Jayhawks this season. Last night saw the Wolf Pack put the ball on the ground FIVE times. Kansas recovered none of them. That is about as bad as the turnover luck gets. And of course, the Jayhawks are at home, where they have played much better in recent seasons.

So while I might be a little surprised at how big the margin is for the betting public, it's not that surprising if you take the recent emotion out of it. Look for some early money on BYU to try and find some value, but don't be shocked if the Jayhawks are a bigger favorite by kickoff.

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