Missouri State at Kansas Football Preview

The Jayhawks open the season at home against the FCS' Bears.

College football is back and the most anticipated and excitement-filled offseason in recent memory for the Kansas Jayhawks is now in the rearview mirror. Jalon Daniels, Devin Neal, Kenny Logan, and company return to The Booth tomorrow and now have their sights on the Missouri State Bears.

As I pointed out during my summer preview of this matchup, this is just the third time in history these two programs have squared off on the football field. Here’s a look at the Jayhawks’ first opponent.

Opponent Overview

Team: Missouri State

Record: 0-0

Line: TBD

Team Form

It’s a new look for the Bears as last year’s head coach Bobby Petrino is off to Texas A&M and taking his place is 33-year-old Ryan Beard, who was promoted from defensive coordinator. Last year’s Bears went 5-6 and 3-5 in the Missouri Valley Conference while putting up some decent offensive numbers but allowing 27 points per game on defense.

This year, MSU was picked to finish eighth in the Missouri Valley out of 12 teams.

Players to Watch

Missouri State had six of its players selected for the Preseason All-Missouri Valley Team. The player Kansas fans will likely be watching the most is former Kansas State Wildcat and second-team All-Missouri Valley pick Jacardia Wright at running back. Wright was on the Missouri Valley All-Newcomer Team last year when he was the first Bear since 2014 to rush for more than 700 yards in a season. A point of concern for MSU is that he’s also the top returning pass catcher with 23 receptions last season. On defense, Von Young returns after being the team’s second-leading tackler a season ago.

But the players with the most accolades for Missouri State belong to special teams. Punter Grant Burkett and long snapper Caden Bolz were both Preseason All-Americans from Phil Steele’s College Football Preview and Stats Perform, while also being First-Team All-Missouri Valley selections. In fact, Burkett is FCS’ current active leader in career punting average and he holds the MSU record for punting yard average in a season (46.2 yards) as well as three of the top four spots.

Matchups to Watch

How well can Kansas run the ball on this Missouri State defense? Last year, the Bears gave up an average of 156 yards per game on the ground. The Jayhawks have the weapons to exploit that if MSU isn’t disciplined. Meanwhile, Wright and the rushing attack for the Bears looks to be the biggest threat to the Kansas defense, at least on paper, which makes for an interesting first test for a new-look Jayhawk defensive line.

It’s tough to know what to expect from the Missouri State passing attack. But what we know is KU will see more than one guy under center. Last year’s quarterback Jason Shelley is gone and Beard has said that both Jacob Clark and Jordan Pachot will get snaps in Lawrence. Neither QB has played yet at the DI level.

Prediction

Missouri State has been able to keep it close against power-five opponents in recent years. In 2021, the Bears only lost by a touchdown to Oklahoma State 23-16. Then last year, MSU played a team familiar to KU when the Bears faced Arkansas and lost 38-27. So this could end up being a decent test for Lance Leipold to start year three.

The difference is that last year, Missouri State had a different, offensive-minded, head coach and a clear No. 1 quarterback. The Bears also had two games to warm up and get in sync before playing Arkansas, whereas this will be the first action they’ve seen on the field to start 2023.

So, a tighter-than-expected game isn’t out of the question. But I don’t buy it here. I like Kansas to establish the run early, opening up passing lanes for Daniels to air it out a bit, and for the defense to take advantage of MSU’s inexperience at quarterback. I’ll say the season starts with a celebration in Lawrence.

Kansas 49, Missouri State 24