Preseason Big 12 Power Rankings: 4 Days Until Kansas Football
Last year on Blue Wings Rising, we had weekly power rankings for the conference that took into account the record for each team, the expectations based on their recent performances, and some measure of projection for the rest of the year. We didn't get those started until Week 2, but this year it feels like a good idea to set some baseline expectations.
So that means that instead of waiting to see the first results (especially a slate that likely isn't going to actually tell us much), I'm going to run through some initial expectations for the season. At this point in the year, there aren't any results to go on. Instead, I'm going to base these rankings on how I think teams would do in head-to-head matchups on a neutral field right now, using all the information we have available.
Don't think of this as my definitive prediction for the final Big 12 standings, but more of an educated guess about the relative strengths of the teams, without accounting for potential injuries or additional development/regression between now and when the games are played.
1. Kansas State Wildcats
Last Season: 10-4 (7-2 Big 12), Big 12 Championship Win vs TCU
The Wildcats were able to put multiple injuries and big personnel changes behind them last season, and are returning many of the key pieces that let them be successful. Will Howard will look to expand on his successful campaign last year, and the losses on defense aren't anything different than they have been able to deal with in recent offseasons.
2. Texas Longhorns
Last Season: 8-5 (6-3 Big 12)
The Longhorns showed a lot of promise early with a close loss to Alabama and absolutely demolishing an Oklahoma team without their quarterback, but they faded down the stretch. Failing to meet high expectations is a fairly normal occurrence in recent years, but on paper they probably have the most talent in the conference. The real question is if they will be able to keep it together late in the season.
3. TCU Horned Frogs
Last Season: 13-2 (9-0 Big 12), Lost Big 12 Championship to Kansas State, Beat Michigan in CFP semifinals, lost to Georgia in CFP National Championship
The run last season came out of nowhere, and there are many that will be expecting Sonny Dykes to follow up a magical run to the National Championship game. But Max Duggan is gone and the Horned Frogs did benefit from some injury luck in tough situations. There is no doubt that they have the makings of a good team, but only time will tell how much of a step back they take and how much they were actually helped.
4. Oklahoma Sooners
Last Season: 6-7 (3-6 Big 12)
This is a great example of a ranking based on everything staying perfect. There is no doubt that Brent Venables is a great defensive coach. And this year he should have more players that will fit his program needs. But the offense will only go as far as Dillon Gabriel takes them. He has a lot of good flashes last year, but also had a lot of mediocre play and bad injury luck. It's possible that was due to a rough transition to the Big 12, so I'm willing to give him a little bit of the benefit of the doubt.
5. Texas Tech Red Raiders
Last Season: 8-5 (5-4 Big 12)
Joey McGuire was impressive in year 1 with an aggressive playcalling style. That was despite the game of quarterback musical chairs that his team had to work around all year long. Add a defense that has promise to an offense that has a lot of potential, and it's hard not to like this team.
6. Kansas Jayhawks
Last Season: 6-7 (3-6 Big 12)
Do I think Kansas finishes here? Probably not. I expect things to either be significantly better than this or significantly worse. When one of the most efficient offenses of last year returns basically everyone, it's difficult to see a problem on the offensive end. But the defense is still a huge question, and I'm convinced at this point that we are either going to see a great defense or a horrible one. This spot splits the difference
7. UCF Knights
Last Season: 9-5 (6-2 American)
UCF is the best positioned team coming into the conference this season, as they have a fairly strong program recently without a ton of turnover this season. The step up in competition will be difficult for them, but they are still a good team that will upset several teams that people don't think they should.
8. Baylor Bears
Last Season: 6-7 (4-5 Big 12)
I'm not really sure what to think of the Bears. Part of that is a lack of studying them as an opponent this year, but a lot of it is the uneven performances from last Blake Shapen and an offense that couldn't seem to figure what they wanted to be for a good portion of the year. I could see this team being really good and I could see them being terrible, so I'll slot them in here based on my belief in Dave Aranda's coaching ability.
9. BYU Cougars
Last Season: 8-5
BYU has been a disappointment for the last few seasons, fading down the stretch in one of the more difficult scheduling situations possible as an independent. But they won't have that excuse this year, and the deficiencies on the roster can't be hidden. I don't think the defense will be awful, but it won't be elite in the conference. And Kedon Slovis doesn't feel like the answer to me at quarterback, but he'll have some opportunities early to prove himself.
10. Iowa State Cyclones
Last Season: 4-8 (1-8 Big 12)
With a gambling scandal causing waves in the offseason, it's difficult to know exactly what this Iowa State offense is going to look like. But Matt Campbell has been able to rely on the phenomenal defenses that Jon Heacock has fielded the last few years. It's that track record that keeps me from dropping them into the bottom four, but it's not hard to see an abysmal offense tanking the team's record this season.
11. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Last Season: 7-6 (4-5 Big 12)
I just don't trust anything on the Oklahoma State roster right now. They will have a decent defense with some potential standouts, but there doesn't seem to be a room that is just absolutely stacked. They are turning to Alan Bowman to lead the charge at quarterback, but there have been questions about his health every season he has played. The fact that he has experience in both systems that the Cowboys are drawing on this year (Texas Tech and Michigan) won't do any good if he can't stay on the field.
12. West Virginia Mountaineers
Last Season: 5-7 (3-6 Big 12)
It seems that Neal Brown might keep his job no matter how bad the year is, but it's tough to see that they will do well enough to actually save it. The defense isn't that special and needs work, and the offense will be relying on Garrett Greene, who has been a backup for multiple seasons for a reason. He is going to have to develop at a Will Howard level if West Virginia is going to get close to making a bowl game.
13. Houston Cougars
Last Season: 8-5 (5-3 American)
Dana Holgorsen back in the Big 12? Oh boy. The fact that his teams have severely underperformed in the last few years doesn't do him any favors. The collapse last year may have only been mitigated by the impending entry into the Big 12. I think that Dana has enough clout to hold on barring an absolute disaster of a season, but coming to the Big 12 with a team like this isn't going to help at all.
14. Cincinnati Bearcats
Last Season: 9-4 (6-2 American)
Cincinnati is a far cry from the team that went to the CFP just two years ago. A brand new coach, a brand new conference, and a whole bunch of turnover are all things that will make it difficult for them to compete.
Join the discussion! Come talk about this or any of our articles on the Blue Wing Rising Discord Server.
Follow Blue Wings Rising on Twitter.
Listen to the official podcast of Blue Wings Rising: The Rock Chalk Podcast.
