TCU vs Kansas Football Preview: Prepare for a Shootout

The newly ranked Jayhawks face their toughest opponent yet as No. 17 TCU comes to Lawrence.

Who would have thought a month ago that TCU coming to face the Kansas Jayhawks would be a matchup of two ranked teams with so much positive momentum that ESPN’s College GameDay would forgo Alabama-Texas A&M to make the trip?

No one, that’s who. But it’s happening, and that’s what makes this story so great. But away from the buzz there’s a game to be played, and a tough one at that.

Opponent Overview

Team: TCU

Record: 4-0

Line: TCU -7 (opened TCU -6)

Team Form

The Horned Frogs are coming off a 55-24 spanking of Oklahoma in Fort Worth to improve to 4-0 after its lone test so far this year against SMU. It’s been all offense for TCU to start the year. The Horned Frogs have the third highest-scoring offense in the country so far at 48.5 points per game and the only time they haven’t scored at least 40 points was in the opener to Colorado when TCU won 38-13.

Granted, the defenses the Horned Frogs have faced haven’t been world-beaters — Colorado gives up 43.2 ppg (129th of 131 nationally), Tarlton State is an FCS school, SMU gives up 25.5 ppg (69th nationally), and Oklahoma 25.2 (67th) — but make no mistake, this is a exceptional offensive unit. Meanwhile, the defense has been slightly above average, giving up 22 points per game, though that rises closer to 30 when just looking at the two toughest games so far (Colorado is barely above an FCS team at this point).

Players to Watch

It all starts with quarterback Max Duggan. Now in his fourth season with TCU, through four games Duggan has a career high in completion percentage so far (74.5%), career high in yards per attempt (10.6) and his 11 touchdowns are just five off the career high he set last year in 10 games. Most impressively, Duggan has yet to throw an interception. In fact, TCU has only turned the ball over one time so far this year.

Like Kansas, and unlike Iowa State, there are a ton of weapons on this offense, and TCU likes to get all of them involved. Kendre Miller is the leading rusher (386 yards), but Emari Demercado has tied him in yards per rush (7.6) and has nearly as many touchdowns (four to Miller’s five). At receiver, six different players have more than 100 yards on the year and all but one are averaging more than 10 yards per catch. But Derius Davis is Duggan’s go-to, leading the team in receptions (14) and receiving touchdowns (3).

On defense, Kansas blockers will have to know where linebacker Dee Winters is on the field. Winters leads the team and is fifth in the Big 12 in sacks (3.5) and leads the team and is eighth in the league in tackles for loss (5), while being third at TCU in tackles.

Matchups to Watch

The key to this game is which defense can slow down the other team’s offense. Both teams can beat you through the air and on the ground, as TCU averages nearly 300 yards passing and more than 250 yards rushing per game.

SMU had the best shot at the Horned Frogs by getting them in third-and-long situations. TCU punted four times in that game and all of them were after at least 3rd and 10 and three of the four were after a 3rd and 20+. But SMU threw two picks, and the next TCU drive resulted in a touchdown each time. Kansas will need to get to Duggan with pressure and win the turnover battle if the Jayhawks want to win on Saturday.

Prediction

I’m 5-0 so far on my predictions picking Kansas to win each time. But there’s no question this is the Jayhawks’ toughest test yet. I was pretty confident in my picks after researching Houston and West Virginia, but the numbers make TCU more intimidating.

So, yeah, my head says I should probably pick TCU. But my head also told me Kansas would go 4-8 this year and the Jayhawks have already exceeded that. It’s another sellout and I think KU plays better after a down performance against Iowa State. We’re at the point where I’m going to ride this wave of momentum until proven otherwise. Give me a bowl-eligibility-clinching win after the GameDay hype.

Kansas 42, TCU 41

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