Texas Tech at Kansas Preview

The Jayhawks welcome the Red Raiders for their second to last home game of the season.

The Kansas Jayhawks have reached seven wins for the first time since 2008 and are just one game back of the Big 12 lead. The final stretch begins with the first of two straight home games when the Texas Tech Red Raiders come to Lawrence.

Opponent Overview

Team: Texas Tech

Record: 4-5

Line: KU -4

Team Form

Texas Tech is a fascinating resume case and team to try and predict right now. The Red Raiders are 3-3 in the Big 12, but those wins are against Houston, Baylor, and TCU, none of which currently has a winning record. And it’s not like Tech has lost to a swarm of juggernauts either, with its losses coming to West Virginia (by seven), K-State (by 17), and BYU (by 13). Though, as we’ll get to next, those last two losses were not with Tech at full strength.

Players to Watch

Injury luck (or lack of luck) at the quarterback position is a factor in that up-and-down form from Texas Tech. Starter Tyler Shough broke his leg earlier in the season, so Behren Morton came in and has played in six games, but suffered a shoulder injury against West Virginia that has lingered and forced freshman Jake Strong to play K-State and BYU. But Morton came back against TCU and was excellent, completing 28-36 passes for 282 yards, two touchdowns, and zero interceptions.

The most dynamic offensive weapon for Texas Tech is running back Tahj Brooks. Brooks has already eclipsed 1,000 yards on the season, averaging 5.4 yards per rush, and has found the end zone seven times. The receiving room, on the other hand, is a committee. Xavier White, Myles Price, and Jerand Bradley all have at least 27 catches and more than 300 yards, while seven different Red Raiders have double-digit receptions on the season.

The Red Raiders defense doesn’t force many interceptions, but it does have defensive linemen who can get into the backfield. Jaylong Hutchings (seven tackles for loss and three sacks) and Myles Cole (six tackles for loss and 3.5 sacks) have both had strong seasons anchoring the Tech defensive front.

Matchups to Watch

Texas Tech has been the opposite of Kansas’ last two opponents. Where Oklahoma and Iowa State have dominated the turnover battle, the Red Raiders have not been so fortunate. Tech has turned it over 16 times on the year and only forced 10. Two of its best wins (Houston and TCU) were when the Red Raiders didn’t turn over the ball, but Tech also has turned it over three or more times in three games – including four times against Oregon and five times against BYU.

As mentioned above, the Kansas defense has to slow down Brooks and the running attack. Morton being back will allow Tech to air it out a bit more, but there’s no doubt Brooks is a focus. Texas Tech’s top three rushing performances of the year have all resulted in wins. The Red Raiders also ran it extremely well against KSU (182 yards) and Oregon (174 yards) but again, turnovers kept Texas Tech from being more competitive in those games.

Prediction

The betting line has hovered between KU -3.5 and -4.5 all week, which was frankly a bit surprising. Morton coming back clearly helps the Red Raiders, but a 4-5 team going on the road against a ranked 7-2 team and only being underdogs by around a field goal means either Vegas expects the Red Raiders to build on its TCU performance or is slow to respect Kansas’ resume.

The Texas Tech run game makes the Red Raiders formidable, but I can’t see Tech doing enough to win the game here. Even with a win over TCU last week, TTU led 20-7 at the half and then immediately gave up two touchdowns to trail 21-20 in the third quarter to TCU’s freshman quarterback. Kansas should be hyped up at home, where the Jayhawks’ defense has played better all year, and Jason Bean looks as comfortable as he has all season coming off the win at Iowa State.

I don’t know if it will be a blowout, but I like Kansas to win and cover.

Kansas 38, Texas Tech 28

Record ATS: 5-4

Record Straight Up: 7-2

(Last week: Kansas 28, Iowa State 21)