UCF at Kansas Football Preview

The Jayhawks will look to rebound at home in their first meeting with the Knights.

After suffering its first loss of the season, the Kansas Jayhawks are back home and looking to bounce back as it takes on the UCF Knights in its first meeting as Big 12 foes. And both teams share a commonality coming into the game: health uncertainty around the quarterback position.

Opponent Overview

Team: UCF

Record: 3-2

Line: UCF -2

Team Form

Kansas ran into a great Texas team, but the loss wasn’t as bad as what UCF suffered last week at home. UCF was up 35-7 in the third quarter before Baylor scored 29 unanswered points to win the game 36-35. That was just Baylor’s second win of the season and left the Knights still searching for their first conference win.

There are two ways a team can respond to that sort of demoralizing defeat. Either it injures their psyche and carries over into the next game — potentially affecting their performance in close games down the stretch — or it lights a fire that shoots them out of a cannon. We’ll see which happens on Saturday.

Players to Watch

The big news is that UCF starting quarterback John Rhys Plumlee could return after suffering a leg injury in week two. The former Ole Miss QB was completing 70% of his passes before his injury, after throwing for more than 2,500 yards and 14 TDs last year.

He’s also a threat to run, gaining 862 yards and 11 TDs last year on the ground and averaging 8.6 yards per run already this year. The one knock so far this year is that Plumlee has already thrown four interceptions in just 54 attempts. Timmy McClain has been serviceable as UCF’s backup QB while Plumlee has been out, but he isn’t the running threat that Plumlee is and is only completing 61% of his passes.

The Knights have a two-headed backfield with R.J. Harvey as the lead back (378 yards and five TDs on 73 carries) and Johnny Richardson (45 carries for 394 yards and a TD). UCF also has two clear top receivers. Kobe Hudson leads the team in receptions (21), yards (468), and is tied for receiving TDs (two), but he was completely shut down against Baylor. Hudson only had one catch for five yards versus the Bears. It was the first time he had been held to fewer than 100 yards since the season opener. Meanwhile, Javon Baker is second in catches (17) and yards (332) and had a big game last week with three catches for 113 yards and a TD.

On the defensive side of the ball, the offensive line has got to stop defensive lineman Tre’mon Morris-Brash. Morris-Brash leads the entire country in tackles for loss (12) and is No. 1 in the Big 12 in sacks with five. He has recorded three tackles for loss in three of five games so far this year and has gotten a sack in every game but the opener.

Matchups to Watch

The UCF offense is good enough to contend in the Big 12, especially if Plumlee is playing. The Knights are averaging 545 yards of total offense through five games, and Plumlee’s ability to run adds a layer that Kansas has struggled with so far. Mobile quarterbacks have caused KU more issues than just traditional pocket passers (see the Nevada game).

But the equalizer, and where UCF has not been as sharp, is with turnovers. The Knights turn it over nearly two times (1.8) per game on offense while only forcing one turnover on defense. In fact, UCF has forced one turnover in every game so far, but never more than one. Meanwhile, it has turned the ball over at least twice in four of five games and lost the turnover battle four of five times. Kansas has been the opposite. Outside of some fumbling issues, the KU offense has taken care of the ball and forced more turnovers.

UCF – Turnovers committed: 9 | Turnovers forced: 5

Kansas – Turnovers committed: 5 | Turnovers forced: 8

The Kansas defense needs to be opportunistic here and continue to capitalize on UCF mistakes.

The other big area to watch is how committed Kansas can be to the running game. UCF is giving up nearly 157 yards per game on the ground and K-State ran for 281 against the Knights. Especially with Bean likely starting (more on that in a second), can Kansas establish dominance and control on the ground and let that open up the passing game?

Prediction

On Thursday, Action Network’s Brett McMurphy announced that Jason Bean would start for the Jayhawks on Saturday, though still left the door open for Daniels to potentially play:

Kansas QB Jason Bean will make his 3rd start of season vs. UCF, sources told @ActionNetworkHQ. Jalon Daniels, preseason Big 12 Offensive Player of Year, missed last week’s game vs. Texas w/back issues & his availability vs. UCF will be determined Saturday

— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) October 5, 2023

The news came after the betting line quickly moved from KU -2 to UCF -2. And it’s understandable. But the difference between this week and last week is that Bean will not be thrown out as a surprise at the last minute. He will have had all week to game plan and Andy Kotelnicki and staff will be better prepared to tailor the game to his strengths.

I expect this to be a high-scoring game. UCF has given up a total of 80 points in its first two BIg 12 games and we know that the KU offense can still put points with Bean under center. And ultimately, UCF’s turnover problems and the fact that the Knights are on the road and just suffered a humiliating comeback the week before would scare me from picking them in this spot.

Give me Kansas straight up to move to 5-1.

Kansas 35, UCF 31

Record ATS: 2-3

Record Straight Up: 5-0

(Last week: Texas 40, Kansas 14)