UNLV vs Kansas Guaranteed Rate Bowl Preview

The Jayhawks will look to avenge last year's Liberty Bowl defeat in Phoenix against the Rebels.

For the second straight year the Kansas Jayhawks are playing football in late December. After a narrow overtime defeat in the Liberty Bowl a season ago, the Jayhawks are looking to end the season on a high note and reach nine wins when it travels to Phoenix for a post-Christmas battle in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl.

What’s interesting is not just that UNLV’s head coach is former Missouri head coach Barry Odom, but that last year Odom was the defensive coordinator for the Arkansas Razorbacks team that Jalon Daniels put up massive numbers against in the Liberty Bowl.

Opponent Overview

Team: UNLV

Record: 9-4

Line: KU -12.5

Team Form

UNLV’s nine wins were a big improvement from the 5-7 record of a year ago. But it could have been even better. The Rebels lost their final two games of the season, the last being the Mountain West Championship Game to Boise State 44-20.

UNLV challenged itself in the non-conference slate, playing Michigan (it lost 35-7) and beating SEC opponent Vanderbilt 40-37. The best wins of the year came before the end-of-year slide when the Rebels beat Wyoming and Air Force in consecutive weeks. And the losses are respectable, all coming against teams with winning records.

Players to Watch

The Rebels also made a change at QB (unlike Kansas, this one was their decision) early in the year and it paid off. Freshman Jayden Maiava only attempted a total of 13 passes in the first two games before being given the reins in game three against Vandy. He then went on to be the Mountain West Freshman of the Year, passing for 2,794 yards, 14 touchdowns, and eight interceptions. He also ran for 261 and three touchdowns.

And Maiava has an All-American receiving target in Ricky White, who set a school receiving yards record with 1,386 on a ridiculous 81 catches, seven of those going for touchdowns. The other main receiving weapon is Jacob De Jesus, who brought in 52 passes for 511 yards. The Rebels also have a two-headed attack in the run game. Vincent Davis led the team in rushing yards with 722 (and six rushing TDs) but Jai’Den Thomas found the end zone most with 12 rushing touchdowns and 503 yards.

Jackson Woodard is UNLV’s leading tackler (114) and also leads the team in tackles for loss (eight). In the secondary, three players have multiple interceptions on the year: Jaxen Turner (four), Cameron Oliver (three), and Johnathan Baldwin.

Matchups to Watch

This is an offensive-minded team that averaged 34.3 points per game and it put up points in a variety of ways. UNLV averaged 235 passing yards per game and 179.5 on the ground, proving it could win either way. The Rebels had multiple 300-passing-yard games (Colorado State and Air Force) and 300-rushing-yard games (UTEP and Hawaii) this year.

But no matter what, UNLV will run a lot. The MW title game was the first time all season where the Rebels ran less than 30 times in a game (28) as it played catch up, but in eight games UNLV ran it more than 40 times. That's also the way it puts up points, with 37 of its 51 offensive touchdowns coming on the ground. The Kansas defensive front has to be ready to contain the run and get off the field, forcing a young quarterback to pass more than he wants in a tough situation.

Concerning for UNLV is that its defense has also struggled against the run. The Rebels have given up more than five yards per carry in each of the last three games (Air Force and Boise St each ran for more than 300 yards on 64 and 51 carries). UNLV isn’t much better in the pass defense, allowing 238 passing yards per game. The success for the Rebels has been forcing turnovers. UNLV has 14 interceptions and 10 fumble recoveries this year, while turning it over just 17 times on offense. Jason Bean has been good about taking care of the football and the running backs will need to secure the ball on the ground and not lose offensive possessions.

Prediction

The game taking place the day after Christmas isn’t ideal, but Kansas Athletics announced onTuesday that its ticket allotment had been sold out for the second straight year, which means there should be a great KU contingent in Phoenix.

Taking over The Valley 🌵🔴🔵

• Sold out allotment (2nd straight year)
• Sold out pregame tailgate#RockChalk x @RateBowl pic.twitter.com/CeaOoSz1KH

— Kansas Jayhawks (@KUAthletics) December 20, 2023

This has the look of another high-scoring, action-packed game, and it feels like the Jayhawks really want this one for revenge after last year. This could also potentially be a tremendous end to Bean’s story after the failed two-point attempt in last year’s bowl game.

I like Kansas to take care of business in Arizona and end the year with a ninth win and bowl hardware.

Kansas 42, UNLV 28

Record ATS: 7-5

Record Straight Up: 8-4

(Last week: Kansas 49, Cincinnati 16)