The path for the Kentucky Wildcats to earn a top four seed and double-bye in SEC Tournament
John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats suffered a heartbreaking loss on the road to LSU on Wednesday evening, dropping them to 8-5 in SEC play and halting any momentum the program had coming off the Auburn win last weekend.
The 'Cats are currently tied with Florida for fifth place in the conference standings, with Alabama (11-2) in the lead followed by Tennessee (10-3) and then South Carolina and Auburn both at 9-4.
The SEC Tournament begins on March 13 and will end with the championship on March 17 right before Selection Sunday begins. Kentucky, like everyone in the SEC, is vying for a top four spot in the standings so they can earn a double-bye - which means they won't play until Friday when the quarterfinals begin, and only need to win two games to reach the championship.
Kentucky has five regular season games remaining, one against Alabama on Saturday and another at Tennessee on March 9. While Kentucky likely won't catch Alabama even with a win, a win over Tennessee could be huge for the 'Cats, especially if the Vols fall in any of their other remaining games, which includes Auburn, Alabama, and South Carolina.
Kentucky also has a road game at Mississippi State and home battles with Arkansas and Vanderbilt remaining, a trio of games the Wildcats, simply put, absolutely must win.
If the 'Cats go 4-1 in their five remaining games they'll be 12-6 overall and they hold a tiebreaker over Auburn, although not South Carolina. 4-1 may seem like enough to earn a top four seed, but it's still far from a guarantee.
The Gamecocks do have a particularly tough schedule remaining, with road games at Ole Miss and Texas A&M followed by home matchups with Florida and Tennessee, and then closing at Mississippi State. They could easily go 2-3 or 1-4 in this stretch, and if Kentucky goes 4-1 they would likely pass them in the standings.
However, that still leaves Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, and Florida, and the Gators have a favorable schedule remaining, with two games against Vanderbilt, one against Missouri, and then South Carolina and Alabama.
It's certainly possible they drop two of those games, but they are playing great basketball right now which could be bad news for the 'Cats.
Kentucky has unfortunately put themselves in a position where anything less than 4-1 makes a double-bye incredibly unlikely, and even going 4-1 would require stumbles from other programs for them to avoid playing before the quarterfinals. Best case of course is for Kentucky to regroup from this loss and rattle off five straight, which is the only way to basically ensure a spot in that top four.