The path for the Kentucky Wildcats to miss the 2024 NCAA Tournament

John Calipari's team has plenty of opportunities to right the ship, but a few more losses and Kentucky may struggle to get an at-large bid in the NCAA Tournament.

It's a conversation no one thought we'd be having even a month ago. But, after losing three of their last four games, all at Rupp Arena, the Kentucky Wildcats are not only falling out of the race to win the SEC regular season - they could be in danger of falling out of the NCAA Tournament picture as well.

John Calipari's team currently sits at 16-7 overall and 6-4 in SEC play, 2.5 games back from both South Carolina and Alabama who are tied for first place. Auburn and Tennessee are both ahead of Kentucky, who is currently tied with Florida and Texas A&M for fifth place.

All that competition at the top makes winning the SEC a challenging task with eight games remaining, but the bigger priority will be ensuring they don't put themselves in a position where they are sweating on Selection Sunday.

The Wildcats are currently 2-5 in Quad 1 games and sit 25th in the NET. No team below 31 in the NET has failed to receive an at-large bid, so as of this moment the 'Cats are fairly safe. But, they have four Quad 1 games remaining, as well as a pair of Quad 2 games (including tonight against Ole Miss) and one quad 3 at home against Arkansas and a Quad 4 at home against Vanderbilt.

Kentucky needs at minimum three Quad 1 wins to feel safe going into Selection Sunday, meaning they need to win at least one of the following games: At Auburn (2/17), vs. Alabama (2/24), at Mississippi State (2/27) or at Tennessee (3/9). Certainly would be even better to win two or more, but just one would probably still get them in - assuming they take no other losses.

But, Kentucky does already have one Quad 2 loss and the glaring Quad 3 loss at home to UNC-Wilmington, giving them even less wiggle room. Winning a few more Quad 1 games will help, but it's arguably more important Kentucky avoids any more bad losses. 

And while it is hard to be too concerned about the home game against Vanderbilt, the home game against Arkansas is currently a Quad 3 and if that sticks, and Kentucky loses, that could be a massive hit to their at-large hopes.

All this changes depending how Kentucky does tonight at home against Ole Miss. If they lose their fourth consecutive home game, and drop their Q2 record to 3-2, it will be much harder to feel good about this team's chances of even making the Big Dance - which will cause some serious panic in Big Blue Nation.