Bart Torvik Projects Louisville's 2024-25 Season

Tipoff might be five months away, but we have some idea of how the 2024-25 men's college basketball season might pan out for the Cardinals.

The Cardinal mascot hyped the crowd during pre-game introductions / Jeff Faughender/Courier Journal and USA

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The upcoming 2024-25 college basketball season will mark the start of a new era for the Louisville men's basketball program.

Following an abysmal two-year run as the head coach, Kenny Payne was dismissed one day removed from the end of the Cardinals' 2023-24 season. Louisville then went on to name College of Charleston's Pat Kelsey as the program's next head coach.

Just over two months later, Kelsey and his staff have done a masterful job on the roster construction front, and buzz surrounding the program is the highest it has been in years. But how well will Louisville perform in year one under his guidance?

It is a little early to tell, considering the full schedule hasn't even been released yet, but we already have some idea thanks to the college basketball analytics site Bart Torvik.

Despite tipoff not coming for another five-and-a-half months, Torvik already hasrunning projections for the upcoming 2024-25 season. This includes overall ranking, offensive and defensive ratings, projected win/loss totals, and more.

That being said, Bart Torvik is not high on the Cardinals heading into year one of the Kelsey era, ranking Louisville as the No. 89 team in college basketball. They are the fourth-lowest ranked team in the now 18-member ACC, ahead of only Virginia Tech at 96th, Stanford at 98th, Florida State at 121st and Boston College at 147th.

Louisville sports an adjusted offensive efficiency of 109.1, which comes in as the 92nd-best mark in Division I, whereas their adjusted defensive efficiency of 98.8 sits at 88th. Despite bringing in a highly-ranked transfer class, Torvik tabs UofL as the 131st-most talented team in D1 with projected effective talent rating of 21.7.

Put it all together, and Torvik projects Louisville to go 16-15 over the course of the regular season, and 8-12 in conference play. 

While the early computer models might not be high on Louisville at this juncture, various national analysts are. 247Sports' Isaac Trotter recently placed Louisville at No. 4 in his ACC Power Rankings, while the Field of 68's Jeff Goodman went as far to say the Cards are a preseason top-25 team.

Not long after the end of Louisville's disastrous 2023-24 campaign, the Cardinals' roster began to flip. All 12 of Louisville's scholarship players entered the portal, with only walk-on guard Aidan McCool in line to return.

Fortunately, Kelsey has done a fantastic job of roster construction since his hiring on Mar. 28, bringing in 12 Division I transfers and one high school prospect. Their transfer portal class ranks No. 1 in the nation, according to On3.

(Photo of Louie: Jeff Faughender - Courier Journal and USA)

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