How The ACC Tournament Can Affect Louisville's NCAA Tournament Seed

We're less than a week away from the unveiling of the 2020 NCAA Tournament field, and the ACC Tournament has plenty of say as to where Louisville will end up come Selection Sunday.

With Selection Sunday less than a week away, the No. 15 Louisville Cardinals will finally learn their NCAA Tournament draw after months of bracket projections. While the Big Dance is right on the Cards' doorstep, there is still plenty that can happen between now and then that has the potential to alter Louisville's tournament seeding.

Before we get into how their projection can change, let's take a quick look at their current tournament resume. According to WarrenNolan.com, this is the Cardinals' team sheet for games through Mar. 10th, 2020:

Given this tournament resume, the Cards are now projected to be awarded a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament according to BracketMatrix.com. However this is anything but a lock, as it has the potential to move in either direction depending on how Louisville performs in the ACC Tournament. Let's take a look at all the ways the Cards' trip to Greensboro, NC can shake out, and how it will effect their NCAA Tournament draw.

First we have their opening game against either Syracuse or North Carolina. The Orange currently have a NET rating of 64, with the Tar Heels even lower at 78. If the Cards go one-and-done against either one of these teams, it would hand them their second Quadrant 2 loss of the season, and I think would justify them dropping to a No. 5 seed. Winning against either team isn't enough to move the proverbial needle off the four line.

Onto the ACC semifinals. If Louisville can make it past their first game in Greensboro, they will have the potential to face the Boston College Eagles (NET 153), Notre Dame Fighting Irish (NET 56) or Virginia Cavaliers (NET 42). This would most likely wind up being a Virginia vs. Louisville rubber match, as the Cavs have also clinched a double bye like Louisville has. No matter what happens, this game will probably not do much to move the Cards off the No. 4 seed as it is just one additional Quadrant 1 win or loss. The only movement that could happen here is if the Cards somehow matchup with and subsequently lose to Boston College, which I believe could send them down to the No. 5 seed as it would be an egregious Quadrant 3 loss.

Now we have the ACC Championship. It goes without saying that here is where the Cards can do themselves the most favors. The expected matchup if Louisville makes it this far would be against the Duke Blue Devils (NET 6), Florida State Seminoles (NET 10) or North Carolina State Wolfpack (NET 54). Obviously the Cards have the most to gain with facing either Duke or FSU, but if NC State makes it this far they can work themselves into a Quadrant 1 matchup.

Facing any of these three teams, if Louisville drops this game they will still most likely come away with a No. 4 seed. At that point they will be 5-7 against Quadrant 1 teams for the season after adding a win & loss in the Greensboro. However, an ACC Championship that sees them adding two Quadrant 1 wins to put them at an even 6-6 I believe will be enough to vault them into a No. 3 seed. The only way an ACC title still keeps them at the four line is if it comes against Clemson, Miami or Pitt.

Long story short, in my opinion here is how it breaks down:

• No. 3 Seed: Two Quad 1 wins w/ACC Title
• No. 4 Seed: One Quad 1 win w/ACC Title
• No. 5 Seed: Zero Quad 1 wins & no ACC Title

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