Breaking Down Pat Kelsey's Hiring at Louisville

We examine the pros and cons of hiring Pat Kelsey to be the next head men's basketball coach of the Cardinals.

Feb 23, 2023; Charleston, South Carolina, USA; Charleston Cougars head coach Pat Kelsey gestures / David Yeazell-USA TODAY Sports

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The Pat Kelsey era of Louisville men's basketball is about to begin.

The University of Louisville is set to hire current College of Charleston head coach to be the program's next head coach, according to multiple reports. It is expected to be made official later today following a 3:00 p.m. meeting of ULAA's Executive Committee and Board of Directors.

While UofL athletic director Josh Heird's search for the Cardinals' next head coach certainly took plenty of winding paths since Kenny Payne's dismissal back on Mar. 13, he finally has his guy. Now that the only thing left is board approval, which will happen, let's break down the pros and cons of the hire.

For starters, Kelsey has an incredibly infectious and electric personality. There are very few coaches in the college game - if any at all - that bring more energy to the table than what Kelsey. On the sideline, at the press conference, in practice, wherever. Considering how low Louisville sunk in recent years, this jolt of energy is exactly what the Cardinals needed in a head coach.

It also helps that Kelsey has won at both of his head coaching stops up to this point. He sports an overall record of 261-122 (.681), including a 75-27 (.735) mark in three years with Charleston and a 186-95 (.662) record in nine seasons with Winthrop. The only time he has posted a losing season was in his very first year as a head coach.

Of Kelsey's 12 years as a head coach, he's won 20 or more games in seven of them. He's also won six regular season titles, five conference titles, and was the 2024 CAA Coach of the Year.

One knock on Kelsey is that with all the wins he has amassed so far in his career, that has yet equate to NCAA Tournament success. Of his four trips to the Big Dance, they all have ended in first round losses.

Part of that, however, might because of the competition faced, and the inherent talent disadvantage that comes with it. Of the four of the teams that Kelsey has faced in the NCAA Tournament, all have made it to at least the Sweet Sixteen. No. 4 Butler and No. 5 Villanova both made it to the Sweet Sixteen in 2017 and 2021, respectively, No. 5 San Diego State was the national runner-up last season, and No. 4 Alabama is still dancing this season.

What about the actual on-court product? Well, as you can imagine with a coach as high-energy as Kelsey, a lot of this is reflected in what we see play out on game day.

On both ends of the floor, Kelsey-coached team have featured some of the fastest tempos in the sport. In his last nine seasons, the only team to not crack the top-50 in KenPom's adjusted tempo metric was this season - when they finished 51st. Four Kelsey teams have cracked the top-20, with his first Charleston squad in 2021-22 finishing with the second-fastest tempo in college basketball.

Because of this, he regularly substitutes players, with his main rotation sometimes being as many as 10 players. Let's use this year's Charleston squad as an example. The highest minutes-per-game average on the team was 25.9. Seven players averaged 20.0-plus minutes per game and 10 averaged double-figures.

How does this frenetic and breakneck pace translate on both end of the court? On offense, Kelsey's teams have been defined mainly by two things: offensive rebounding and shooting the three.

Over the last five seasons, four of Kelsey's five teams have inside the top-20 of KenPom's offensive rebounding percentage - with the lone exception being this season at 43rd. The constant pushing of the pace, combined with high effort, directly correlates to this.

This when it comes to shooting the ball, they're going to let that sucker fly from long rang. Only two of Kelsey's teams did not crack the top-70 in KenPom's 3PA/FGA metric. Over the last two seasons, where Charleston has gone 58-12, 47.4 of their field goal attempts have been three-pointers.

When it comes to offense vs. defense, Kelsey teams have traditionally been a little stronger in the former category. Charleston finished at No. 53 this season by KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, and No. 78 last season.

That's not to say there aren't some elements of his defenses that are appealing. But first, something to appease the fan base on this front. Whenever you hear that Louisville is hiring a guy that coached under Chris Mack, many fans would be led to believe that the "pack-line defense" would be making a comeback to the KFC Yum! Center.

This isn't entirely the case. Kelsey's defense might not put on a full blown full-court press, but they do extend farther beyond the perimeter than you would expect from a more traditional pack-line. There is a lot of heavy ball pressure.

Because of this, opponents typically have some issues with ball movement. Nine of Kelsey's teams have finished inside the top-100 in defensive assist percentage, while two teams finished inside the top-ten.

That being said, defense is definitely a little bit of an issue. For example, this past season, Charleston gave up an average of 73.6 points per game - which currently sits at 230th out of 351 teams at the D1 level. One of Kelsey's assistants will likely have to be a defensive specialist.

Now, how is he as a recruiter? Well, that part is to-be-determined, but there is potential. As a head coach, he hasn't had the chance to prove himself on this front quite yet considering Winthrop and Charleston aren't premier destinations for blue chip talent. In fact, he's only ever landed two recruits with a 247Sports profile during his time as a head coach.

But while he was an assistant at Wake Forest during the 2000's, it was a little bit of a different story. He helped recruit guys like Chris Paul, James Johnson, Jeff Teague and a variety of other top-100 prospects.

Will that recruiting prowess he showed as an assistant re-emerge with him as a head coach at a power conference program? It's not a complete guarantee, but it's very possible. Having the 502 Circle's NIL and their reported $3-4 million war chest at his disposal certainly won't hurt.

He's also shown that, based on his efforts in the transfer portal over the last few years, he is open to the modern collegiate athletics landscape and not averse to it like Kenny Payne was.

Now, let's get into the importance of this hire when it comes to things away from the court. When it comes to understanding the significance of the Louisville's men's basketball head coaching job, that's something that the Cardinals' last two hires either never fully grasped or never understood.

While it remains to be seen if Kelsey truly understands the magnitude of the job - where you are the most popular person in one of the 30 largest cities in America - one thing seems to be certain: he's going to at least give it a try.

Kelsey's energy and passion extends far beyond the court. While at Charleston, going out into the community and getting them involved with the program was something that Kelsey did fairly regularly. While Payne seemed averse to community outreach, Kelsey embraces it.

To sum it all up: Kelsey's ceiling at Louisville is very much in the "to-be-determined" category. A lot of the early dividends will be determined by how well he can navigate the portal at high level, but we're still not 100 percent sure if his style will translate to the power conference level after being in the mid-major ranks for so long.

But, at the very least, Kelsey's floor is much, much higher than what Louisville fans have been accustomed to over the last few years. Even with a first roster that is "meh" by Louisville talent standards, the Cardinals should still be competitive right out of the gates.

Is there a chance that Louisville could end up in the same position again in just a few years? Sure. But it's also very possible that Kelsey could be just the right thing that the Cardinals needed at this juncture.

(Photo of Pat Kelsey: David Yeazell - USA TODAY Sports)

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