Breaking Down Kenny Payne's Hiring at Louisville

We examine the pros and cons of hiring Kenny Payne to be the next head men's basketball coach of the Cardinals.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The Kenny Payne era of Louisville men's basketball is about to begin.

The University of Louisville is set to hire the current New York Knicks assistant and former longtime Kentucky assistant to be the program's next head coach, according to multiple reports. It will be made official on Friday morning following a 9:00 a.m. meeting of ULAA's Board of Directors.

Payne is inheriting a Cardinals program that is both in a rocky spot following the failed Chris Mack tenure, and has an extremely uncertain immediate future. Louisville has missed the last two NCAA Tournaments, resulting in Mack and UofL mutually parting ways back in late January, and is still awaiting their punishment from the NCAA, which is widely expected to be severe.

UofL interim athletic director Josh Heird had several options to chose from for the job, but Payne was the clear frontrunner from the moment the job opened. Now that the only thing left is board approval, which will happen, let's break down the pros and cons of the hire.

Before we get into benefits and drawbacks that Payne provides from a basketball perspective, we need to get into the importance of this hire when it comes to things away from the court. And there are a lot.

A lot of factors went into why Chris Mack did not work out at Louisville, but the best way to describe it is that, as Heird put it in January when Mack and UofL went their separate ways, it was not a good fit. An ulterior way to put this, that neither Heird or Mack will admit publicly, is that it seemed Mack didn't quite understand how big the Louisville job was until it was too late.

That's not something you have to worry about with Payne in the slightest. He not only played at Louisville for four years under Denny Crum, he helped establish them as a college basketball blue blood by bringing the Cardinals their second ever championship. This notion is also compounded by the fact that he spent a decade on staff at Kentucky, which is the bluest of blue bloods.

This job is more than just a basketball coach. In the public eye, you're the most important figure in the entire city. It involves regular public appearances, ranging from simple meet-and-greets to community activism and engagement. There's no need to explain this part of the job to Payne.

Plus, it's important not to understate the magnitude of UofL finally hiring their first permanent Black head coach. The program was a champion of diversity and inclusion during the Civil Rights Era, becoming the first predominantly white college in the state to sign players of color in 1963. The city of Louisville also has a large minority population, as does the Cardinals' fanbase, and representation matters. Quite frankly, it was way past due for UofL to hire a Black head men's basketball coach.

Now, let's get into what Payne brings from basketball standpoint, and there is a lot to get excited about.

Whenever someone mentions Kenny Payne, what most people first think about is his ability to recruit. Putting it bluntly, calling him an "elite" recruiter might be a bit of an understatement. During his decade in Lexington, Payne played a significant role in the Wildcats' incredible recruiting run during the 2010's, helping them secure a top-two recruiting class, including five No. 1 classes, in each of his ten seasons on staff.

In this day and age of college basketball, where high level recruiting typically matters a lot more than high level coaching, this is exactly what Louisville needs in order to get back to being nationally relevant. Recruiting might not immediately take off considering the NCAA is still looming over, but the program isn't far removed from being able to get in the mix with blue chip talent. 

But Payne is more than just a recruiter. Lost in the shuffle is his ability to develop big men, something that gets vastly overshadowed by his recruiting prowess. As outlined in this piece by The Athletic's Kyle Tucker, NBA stars such as Anthony Davis, Karl-Anthony Towns and Julius Randle rave about his development skills with post players, and credit their success to him.

But, with all that Payne brings to the table, there is one very large elephant in the room: he has never been a head coach in his career.

To be fair, that statement in and of itself does not mean he won't have success when it comes time for Payne to take the reigns at Louisville. It just means there are a lot of unknowns when it comes to his coaching style. Is he offensive or defensive minded? Does he go with a zone or man defense? What are his go-to set plays? What about his timeout philosophy? Those are all complete unknowns.

Not to mention that players going back to coach their alma maters, historically, has been a bag of mixed results. Guys like Juwan Howard and Penny Hardaway have done well at Michigan and Memphis, respectively, but it hasn't been perfect.

Plus, John Calipari's coaching tree is... not great. Chuck Martin, Orlando Antigua and Tony Barbee were awful; and Bruiser Flint, Derek Kellogg and Bill Bayno all hovered around .500 for their careers. The best coach in Calipari's coaching tree? Josh Pastner, who has had mixed results between Memphis and Georgia Tech.

To sum up this hire, it falls squarely in the category of high risk/high reward. With all the unknowns regarding his head coaching ability, no one really knows how this hire could pan out. It's very possible Louisville could end up in the very same position in just a few years.

But on the other side of that coin, there is an incredible amount of potential. Those unknowns could also mean there is an exciting, and more importantly winning, brand of basketball awaiting for Louisville fans. And if he can replicate anything close to resembling the recruiting success he had at Kentucky, then it's only a matter of time before the Cardinals get back to contending for Final Fours and National Championships.

(Photo of Kenny Payne: Nelson Chenault - USA TODAY Sports)

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