Why Louisville Fans Should Temper Kenny Payne's Short-Term Recruiting Expectations
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Kenny Payne's hiring as the head coach of the Louisville men's basketball program was a momentous occasion for both the university and the city.
As a former player for the Cardinals who helped them clinch a championship in 1986, Payne understands the magnitude of the position, and that it's more than just a basketball coach. He is already helping bridge the wide gap between the Denny Crum era and Rick Pitino era, and as the program's long overdue first Black head coach, gives representation to a very large minority segment of the Louisville fan base.
One of the biggest advantages that Payne brings, as many people already know, is his ability as an elite recruiter. Sure, he's never been a head coach before and there is some risk involved there, but when you're able to land top tier talent like he is, the transition period to your first head coaching gig isn't as rough.
His track record on the recruiting trail speaks for itself. In every one of his ten seasons as an assistant with Kentucky, they secured a top-two recruiting class, including five No. 1 overall classes. Payne played a significant role in helping bring 40 composite five-stars to Lexington, with the Wildcats' 2013 and 2017 classes each having six.
Given how connected Payne is in the AAU circuits and at the collegiate level as a whole, it's only natural to assume that recruiting prowess will transition over to Louisville. Soon, it won't be surprising to see the Cardinals in the mix for some of the most elite high school prospects and Division I transfers in the nation.
But, Louisville fans should exercise some patience, because this won't happen immediately.
Given what Payne has been able to accomplish on the recruiting front, it's only natural for fans to get excited about what's to come in the future - or more specifically, who will come. But, at least for the remainder of the 2022 cycle, fans need to dial back their expectations a tad bit.
First of all, there aren't very many elite Class of 2022 prospects left this late in the cycle for Louisville to even recruit. As of this writing, there are only two uncommitted five-star prospects left - Julian Phillips and Malik Reneau - and only four four-star prospects, according to the 247Sports Composite.
Out of the top 150 prospects in the class, which includes five- and four-star guys, as well high three-star prospects, there's just 12 uncommitted players left. Slim pickings, if you ask me.
Sure, Payne could, in theory, flip a committed recruit who has yet to sign a National Letter of Intent. But considering he has been on the job for less than a month, even though his relationship building skills are top notch, it's an uphill battle going up against a school who has developed a relationship with a prospect for months, and potentially well over a year.
At this point in time, getting a prospect to break his NLI and commit elsewhere is not only nearly impossible to do, it's also tampering. There's been chatter about Louisville potentially getting involved with current Duke commits after reportedly hiring away assistant Nolan Smith, but their top four commits are all locked into NLI's.
Could they pull a Bobby Pettiford/Eric Van Der Heijdan and request out of them to follow an assistant? While possible, in my eye, this is highly unlikely to happen - especially considering how well new Blue Devils head coach Jon Scheyer is recruiting.
That's not to say Louisville isn't getting involved with guys who have already decommitted or broken their NLI's. They're very much in the mix for four-stars Devin Ree and Tyrell Ward, who just left LSU and Xavier, respectively. It's only a matter of time before Payne lands his first guy.
For the remainder of the cycle, Payne will have to concentrate mainly on the transfer portal, and boy, are there plenty of options. As of 2:00 p.m. on Apr. 8, a whopping 1,241 players have entered their name into the portal, and Payne has the same amount of time to build relationships and recruit them as anyone else does. Don't be shocked if next year's Louisville squad is heavy on transfers.
But even then, his ability to land the best guys who enter the portal might be somewhat limited, and that's because of our good friends up at the NCAA.
Back in February, the Courier-Journal reported that the program finally learned the hearing date for their ongoing NCAA/IARP infractions case against the men's basketball program. The problem? The hearing isn't scheduled until mid-June.
Plus, Louisville won't find our their punishment until a later date. Using the timeline from NC State's case - which to date, is the only IARP case to actually get resolved so far - and Louisville might not hear a final ruling until late October.
Not to mention that we still have zero idea what type of punishment the NCAA will hand out. Will they swing the hammer since Louisville was on probation? Will they show mercy like they did with NC State? We simply don't know, and that unknown is absolutely being used as a negative recruiting tool.
Long story short, it might not be until deep into the 2022-23 preseason that the looming dark cloud of the NCAA will finally be cast away.
I know that fans don't want to hear that this ongoing case is still a factor all these years later, especially with how toothless the NCAA has seemed in recent years, but it simply is. Chris Mack himself even told me this when I interviewed him last summer. His recruiting tactics also might have played a role, but I digress.
I'm not saying Kenny Payne won't do well on the recruiting trail. Once he finally gets settled into the gig, receives complete clarification on his returning roster and finally gets his staff in place, it'll be all systems go for the 2023 cycle. Payne and Smith are a tremendous 1-2 recruiting punch, and if the Milt Wagner rumors are true, Louisville will be in a tremendous spot for his grandson and No. 1 overall '23 prospect, D.J. Wagner.
What I am saying, however, is that for the next few months, the recruiting dividends for Louisville might not be what people expect. It's great sign to see the fanbase excited about the recruiting potential, but it's a bit of an unrealistic expectation that it will materialize right out of the gates. Fans need to let the cake bake for a little while.
But once that cake is finally ready to come out of the oven, it will be a masterpiece.
(Photo of Kenny Payne: Scott Utterback - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK)
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