End of January Louisville Men's Basketball NCAA Tournament Projections

The Cardinals are firmly in the mix to get back to the Big Dance.
Jan 28, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA;  Louisville Cardinals guard Chucky Hepburn (24) dribbles under the pressure of Wake Forest Demon Deacons guard Ty-Laur Johnson (8) during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Wake Forest 72-59.
Jan 28, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Chucky Hepburn (24) dribbles under the pressure of Wake Forest Demon Deacons guard Ty-Laur Johnson (8) during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Wake Forest 72-59. / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images
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LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Few teams are as hot as the Louisville men's basketball program right now.

After starting year one under head coach Pat Kelsey at 6-5, the Cardinals (16-5, 9-1 ACC) have since won 10 games in a row. They're not only on their longest winning streak in five years, they just clinched their first undefeated month of January since 2009 - and the first by a first-year Cardinals head coach since Denny Crum did it in 1972.

As a result, Louisville is firmly in line to make their return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2019. According to BracketMatrix, a website that averages out several dozen NCAA Tournament projections among major "bracketologists," the Cardinals average out to a five seed in their most recent update (Jan. 28).

So where do some of these projections have Louisville going for the Big Dance? Below is a sampling from some of the more noteworthy NCAA Tournament projectors.

Selection Sunday is set for Sunday, Mar. 16, with the First Four set for Mar. 18-19. The first and second rounds are scheduled for Mar. 20-23, with the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight slated for Mar. 27-30. The Final Four from the Alamodome in San Antonio, Tex. will take place on Apr. 5, with the national championship set for Apr. 7.

Sports Illustrated

  • Projector: Kevin Sweeney
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in West
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 UC Irvine
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Kansas vs. No. 14 UNC Asheville
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Alabama, Marquette, Kansas, Illinois

ESPN

  • Projector: Joe Lunardi
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in West
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 UC Irvine
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Utah Valley
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Iowa State, Tennessee, Kentucky, Oregon

The Athletic

  • Projector: Joe Rexrode
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in South
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 VCU
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 William & Mary
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Auburn, Tennessee, Purdue, Illinois

CBS

  • Projector: Jerry Palm
  • Seed/Region: No. 5 in West
  • First Round Matchup: No. 12 Samford
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 4 Mississippi State vs. No. 13 Northern Colorado
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Iowa State, Tennessee, Purdue, Mississippi State

BracketVille

  • Projector: Dave Ommen
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in Midwest
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Ohio State/UCF
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Jacksonville
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Alabama, Marquette, Kentucky, Oregon
  • Projector: Tim Krueger
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in Midwest
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 Ohio State/Vanderbilt
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 14 Jacksonville
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Alabama, Marquette, Michigan State, Texas A&M

Fox Sports

  • Projector: Mike DeCourcy
  • Seed/Region: No. 5 in South
  • First Round Matchup: No. 12 McNeese State
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 4 Wisconsin vs. No. 13 Yale
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Auburn, Marquette, Houston, Wisconsin

Bleacher Report

  • Projector: Kerry Miller
  • Seed/Region: No. 6 in West
  • First Round Matchup: No. 11 VCU
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 3 Purdue vs. No. 14 Jacksonville
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Iowa State, Tennessee, Purdue, Texas A&M

NCAA

  • Projector: Andy Katz
  • Seed/Region: No. 5 in Midwest
  • First Round Matchup: No. 12 McNeese State
  • Second Round Pairing: No. 4 Mississippi State vs. No. 13 Middle Tennessee
  • Region's Top Four Seeds: Alabama, Houston, Michigan State, Mississippi State

(Photo of Chucky Hepburn: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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Matthew McGavic
MATTHEW MCGAVIC

McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. He is also a co-host of the 'From The Pink Seats' podcast on the State of Louisville network. Video gamer, bourbon drinker and dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic