Kenny Payne Watch is On. But Will Louisville Move Now or Wait?

Column: If UofL is to move on from their head coach midseason, they've finally reached the time to do it. But will AD Josh Heird pull the trigger now, or wait until the end of the season?

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - During any normal athletics season, the Battle of the Bluegrass is typically the day that fans of the Louisville men's basketball program look forward to the most. Not only is their rivalry matchup with Kentucky the biggest showdown of the season for the Cardinals, it's easily the biggest regular season game across the entire University of Louisville athletic department.

But this year? Most Louisville fans have probably been more so looking forward to the day after the game against the Wildcats. Not because they want to put past them what wound up being a 95-76 drubbing on their home floor, but because of the belief that a new era of Cardinals basketball would finally be ushered in.

It's no secret that the job status of head coach Kenny Payne has been standing on thin ice for quite some time now. The Cardinals are now just 9-35 under his guidance, including a 5-7 mark this season against one of the weakest non-conference schedules in men's college basketball.

After the events of Wednesday, Dec. 13., where the program was thoroughly embarrassed both on and off the court, rumors of his potential immediate dismissal started running rampant across the city of Louisville. This chatter didn't take long to reach the national level.

On Dec. 14, college basketball insider Jeff Goodman reported that athletic director Josh Heird "met with multiple Louisville players today to get their thoughts on Kenny Payne and entire situation with the program before making decision," and that Heird was leaning towards making a decision "fairly soon."

The next day, CBS Sports' Matt Norlander reported that Louisville was expected to move on from Payne "sooner rather than later" and that UofL "will not drag this out over the course of the entire season," but it would be unlikely before their game against Pepperdine.

Payne did indeed coach the game against the Waves, leading them to a 85-63 blowout win this past Sunday. Considering the next game against Kentucky came just four days later, it was always highly unlikely that the UofL administration would make a move during that span.

Now, with the Kentucky game in the rear view mirror, the golden opportunity to make a midseason firing has arrived. Louisville will not be back in action until Jan. 3 when they travel to Virginia, which means the Cardinals will have 13 days of downtime for the holidays. The administration, if they were to dismiss Payne, would have plenty of time to get the interim set up to take over for the second half of the season.

There is no chance that Payne comes back for a third year, that much is almost completely certain. But therein lies a crucial question: Will athletic director Josh Heird and the UofL administration actually pull the trigger now, or will they wait until after the season to move on?

I know fans don't want to entertain this option, but let's explore the reasons as to why it would make sense to wait. First and foremost is the money. If UofL were to fire Payne right now, they would owe him an $8 million buyout. This number drops to $6 million after the conclusion of the 2023-24 season.

For an athletic department that is still on the books for the buyout of former head coach Chris Mack, the settlement with former athletic director Tom Jurich, and the settlement with "Papa" John Schnatter for the former naming rights to Cardinal Stadium, $2 million makes a difference.

One might counter by saying if Payne was finally canned, that would draw more fans to the KFC Yum! Center and in turn put more money in UofL's pocket to help with the financial hit. Sure, fans might come out for the first couple games, but the product on the court is still inferior to what is expected at Louisville. I'm willing to bet that over the final month-plus, attendance would likely dip back down what it already currently is. Not to mention that season tickets have already been long sold, so UofL already has that money.

Then there's the option of an interim, or better yet, the lack of one. If Louisville were to fire Payne, who on his bench would you feel comfortable with even leading as the interim? None of the three main bench coaches have inspired much confidence from the fans since they arrived before last season.

Danny Manning has prior interim experience with Maryland, but went just 10-14 with the Terps in the back half of the 2021-22 season. Nolan Smith is more so known as a recruiter, and hasn't really put himself in good graces with the fanbase, either. Josh Jamieson's only coaching experience before joining Payne's staff was at the high school level and with the University of Portland.

There's always the option of axing the entire staff midseason, which has been a rumor floating around since Goodman reported that Heird met with the players last Thursday. In that case, you would have to go out and find an interim to take over for the back half of the season. Then you run the risk of there being an influx of players departing the program via the portal in the middle of the season. The players have been very public in their support for their head coach. Who knows the mutiny that could take place if he's kicked out the door before the season ends.

As much as fans don't want to hear it, there's a lot of reasons as to why it makes sense for Louisville to ride out the rest of the season before making a move. But, let's dive into the rationale *for* making a move midseason.

The biggest reason for an immediate move is to prevent further possible damage to the Louisville brand and its perception from a national level. Too many times during this tenure have I thought, "there's no way in hell things can get more ridiculous or embarrassing for this program," only for me to be proven wrong soon after.

The Ty-Laur Johnson tights snafu, the Koron Davis saga, numerous head-scratching comments from Payne almost every time he steps in front of a microphone - including his sudden realization in the UK postgame press conference that he should actually start using the transfer portal. This is just what has happened in the last two months of a 21-month tenure up to this point.

The actual product on the court is another thing too. It's been nearly two years into this tenure, and I still can't tell you with absolute certainly what exactly their identity on either end of the court is. Plus, while the effort and energy is much better than the 2022-23 team's was, there are still instances - such as the games against Coppin State and New Mexico State - where they look like they just do not care.

Most importantly, making a move midseason - no matter the cost - would be a message from the UofL administration to the fans that what has transpired is flat out unacceptable at a place that is regarded as a top-10 program of all time. Additionally, the longer that this staff is at the helm, the bigger that the disconnect between them and the younger generation grows.

The only people who know Louisville as a traditional powerhouse up to this point are those who are well into their 30's and 40's. Those who are younger probably only know Louisville as a program who is mired in mediocrity and scandal. UofL runs the risk of alienating an entire generation of fans.

What will Josh Heird wind up doing? Who knows. What we do know is that there is a case to be made for an immediate dismissal of Payne, and there is one to be made for waiting until the end of the season.

Which one will Heird choose? We'll find out sooner rather than later.

(Photo of Kenny Payne: Matt Stone - The Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK)

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