Tale of the Tape, Prediction: Louisville vs. Duke

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (11-9, 5-5 ACC) is set to face No. 9 Duke (16-3, 6-2 ACC) on Saturday, Jan. 29 at 12:00 p.m. EST. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils:
- Rankings:
| Duke | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY | 9th/7th | NR/NR |
NET | 13th | 114th |
RPI | 23rd | 110th |
SOS | 69th | 84th |
KenPom | 11th | 114th |
Sagarin | 10th | 94th |
Torvik | 11th | 111th |
- Team Leaders:
| Duke | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Points | Paolo Banchero (17.9) | Noah Locke (10.2) |
Rebounds | Paolo Banchero (7.9) | Malik Williams (8.5) |
Assists | Wendell Moore Jr. (4.6) | Jarrod West (3.2) |
Steals | Trevor Keels (1.9) | Jarrod West (1.5) |
Blocks | Mark Williams (3.7) | Malik Williams (0.7) |
- Scoring:
| Duke | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Points Per Game | 82.0 | 68.5 |
Field Goal % | 49.1% | 42.2% |
FGM/FGA Per Game | 30.1/61.4 | 24.5/58.0 |
Three Point % | 37.4% | 32.0% |
3PTM/3PTA | 8.4/22.4 | 7.9/24.7 |
Free Throw % | 73.3% | 68.5% |
- Rebounding:
| Duke | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Rebounds Per Game | 38.1 | 37.8 |
Off. Reb. Per Game | 10.1 | 9.7 |
Def. Reb. Per Game | 28.0 | 28.2 |
Rebound Margin | +2.6 | +2.6 |
- Defense:
| Duke | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Opp. Points Per Game | 65.8 | 67.7 |
Opp. FG% | 40.4% | 41.4% |
Opp, 3PT% | 29.6% | 32.7% |
Steals Per Game | 7.6 | 6.3 |
Blocks Per Game | 5.7 | 2.3 |
- Ball Handling:
| Duke | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Assists Per Game | 18.0 | 12.7 |
Turnovers Per Game | 10.5 | 12.6 |
Turnover Margin | +2.5 | -1.0 |
Assist/Turnover Ratio | 1.7 | 1.0 |
- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has a 21.9 percent chance to win against Duke.
- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 19 percent chance to take down the Blue Devils, with a projected final score of 74-65 in favor of Duke. Per current metrics, Virginia is highest-ranked opponent that Louisville will face all season.
- Personal Prediction: Duke 78, Louisville 69
(Photo of Samuell Williamson, D.J. Steward: Nell Redmond - USA TODAY Sports)
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McGavic is a 2016 Sport Administration graduate of the University of Louisville, and a native of the Derby City. He has been covering the Cardinals in various capacities since 2017, with a brief stop in Atlanta, Ga. on the Georgia Tech beat. Also an avid video gamer, a bourbon enthusiast, and fierce dog lover. Find him on Twitter at @Matt_McGavic