Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. NC State

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Wolfpack for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (6-4, 3-4 ACC) is set to face NC State (7-3, 3-3 ACC) on Saturday, Nov. 19 at 3:30 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Wolfpack:

- Rankings:

	NC State	Louisville
AP/USA TODAY/CFP	RV/25th/24th	NR/NR/NR
SOS	71st	34th
SP+	42nd	38th
FPI	41st	22nd
Sagarin	45th	29th

- Offensive Statistics:

	NC State	Louisville
Total Offense	97th (350.1)	42nd (420.7)
Scoring Offense	82nd (26.4)	65th (28.8)
Passing Yards	87th (218.5)	79th (224.2)
Yards Per Completion	110th (10.82)	43rd (12.74)
Rushing Yards	88th (131.6)	27th (196.5)
First Downs Gained	58th (215)	69th (205)
3rd Down Con. %	75th (37.9%)	84th (37.0%)
4th Down Con. %	80th (46.7%)	117th (36.0%)
Red Zone Con. %	47th (86.5%)	68th (84.2%)
Turnovers Lost	34th (12)	91st (17)
Interceptions Thrown	20th (5)	67th (8)
Fumbles Lost	68th (7)	109th (9)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	84th (6.10)	73rd (5.80)
Sacks Allowed	61st (2.00)	68th (2.10)
Avg. Time of Possession	16th (32:43)	56th (30:10)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	NC State	Louisville
Total Defense	19th (321.2)	38th (352.8)
Scoring Defense	13th (18.1)	26th (20.6)
Passing Yards Allowed	70th (228.9)	40th (207.6)
Rushing Yards Allowed	9th (92.3)	65th (145.2)
First Downs Allowed	12th (159)	46th (191)
3rd Down Defensive %	18th (31.1%)	35th (34.4%)
4th Down Defensive %	8th (29.4%)	2nd (18.8%)
Red Zone Defensive %	116th (90.5%)	7th (69.4%)
Turnovers Gained	18th (19)	2nd (27)
Interceptions Caught	3rd (16)	6th (14)
Fumbles Recovered	116th (3)	2nd (13)
Sacks Per Game	75th (2.10)	2nd (3.60)
TFL Per Game	23rd (6.8)	12th (7.5)

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	NC State	Louisville
Net Punting	75th (37.86)	36th (40.24)
Avg. Kickoff Return	14th (23.00)	41st (21.25)
Avg.Kickoff Return Def.	15th (16.84)	16th (16.88)
Avg. Punt Return	61st (8.27)	117th (4.41)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	96th (9.62)	52nd (6.32)
Field Goal Attempts	21-22	15-17
PAT	27-27	33-34

Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 69.5 percent chance to win against the Wolfpack. Louisville has an FPI rating of 10.4 (22nd overall), whereas NC State has an FPI rating of 6.5 (41st overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 59.30 percent chance to take down the Wolfpack. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 8.4 (38th overall), whereas NC State has an SP+ rating of 6.9 (42nd overall).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

• Preseason: 6.57
• Post-Week 1: 4.74
• Post-Week 2: 5.70
• Post-Week 3: 5.08
• Post-Week 4: 5.71
• Post-Week 5: 4.65
• Post-Week 6: 5.03
• Post-Week 7: 5.17
• Post-Week 8: 5.77
• Post-Week 9: 6.64
• Post-Week 10: 7.28
• Post-Week 11: 7.00

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 24, NC State 17.

(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Rob Kinnan - USA TODAY Sports)

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