Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. NC State
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (6-4, 3-4 ACC) is set to face NC State (7-3, 3-3 ACC) on Saturday, Nov. 19 at 3:30 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Wolfpack:
- Rankings:
| NC State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
AP/USA TODAY/CFP | RV/25th/24th | NR/NR/NR |
SOS | 71st | 34th |
SP+ | 42nd | 38th |
FPI | 41st | 22nd |
Sagarin | 45th | 29th |
- Offensive Statistics:
| NC State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Offense | 97th (350.1) | 42nd (420.7) |
Scoring Offense | 82nd (26.4) | 65th (28.8) |
Passing Yards | 87th (218.5) | 79th (224.2) |
Yards Per Completion | 110th (10.82) | 43rd (12.74) |
Rushing Yards | 88th (131.6) | 27th (196.5) |
First Downs Gained | 58th (215) | 69th (205) |
3rd Down Con. % | 75th (37.9%) | 84th (37.0%) |
4th Down Con. % | 80th (46.7%) | 117th (36.0%) |
Red Zone Con. % | 47th (86.5%) | 68th (84.2%) |
Turnovers Lost | 34th (12) | 91st (17) |
Interceptions Thrown | 20th (5) | 67th (8) |
Fumbles Lost | 68th (7) | 109th (9) |
Tackles For Loss Allowed | 84th (6.10) | 73rd (5.80) |
Sacks Allowed | 61st (2.00) | 68th (2.10) |
Avg. Time of Possession | 16th (32:43) | 56th (30:10) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Defensive Statistics:
| NC State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Total Defense | 19th (321.2) | 38th (352.8) |
Scoring Defense | 13th (18.1) | 26th (20.6) |
Passing Yards Allowed | 70th (228.9) | 40th (207.6) |
Rushing Yards Allowed | 9th (92.3) | 65th (145.2) |
First Downs Allowed | 12th (159) | 46th (191) |
3rd Down Defensive % | 18th (31.1%) | 35th (34.4%) |
4th Down Defensive % | 8th (29.4%) | 2nd (18.8%) |
Red Zone Defensive % | 116th (90.5%) | 7th (69.4%) |
Turnovers Gained | 18th (19) | 2nd (27) |
Interceptions Caught | 3rd (16) | 6th (14) |
Fumbles Recovered | 116th (3) | 2nd (13) |
Sacks Per Game | 75th (2.10) | 2nd (3.60) |
TFL Per Game | 23rd (6.8) | 12th (7.5) |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- Special Teams Statistics:
| NC State | Louisville | |
|---|---|---|
Net Punting | 75th (37.86) | 36th (40.24) |
Avg. Kickoff Return | 14th (23.00) | 41st (21.25) |
Avg.Kickoff Return Def. | 15th (16.84) | 16th (16.88) |
Avg. Punt Return | 61st (8.27) | 117th (4.41) |
Avg. Punt Return Def. | 96th (9.62) | 52nd (6.32) |
Field Goal Attempts | 21-22 | 15-17 |
PAT | 27-27 | 33-34 |
Key: National Rank out of 131 FBS Teams (Value)
- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 69.5 percent chance to win against the Wolfpack. Louisville has an FPI rating of 10.4 (22nd overall), whereas NC State has an FPI rating of 6.5 (41st overall).
- SP+ Prediction:
Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 59.30 percent chance to take down the Wolfpack. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 8.4 (38th overall), whereas NC State has an SP+ rating of 6.9 (42nd overall).
Weekly Expected Wins Mark:
- Preseason: 6.57
- Post-Week 1: 4.74
- Post-Week 2: 5.70
- Post-Week 3: 5.08
- Post-Week 4: 5.71
- Post-Week 5: 4.65
- Post-Week 6: 5.03
- Post-Week 7: 5.17
- Post-Week 8: 5.77
- Post-Week 9: 6.64
- Post-Week 10: 7.28
- Post-Week 11: 7.00
- Personal Prediction: Louisville 24, NC State 17.
(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Rob Kinnan - USA TODAY Sports)
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