Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Kentucky

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Dec 11, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard J'Vonne Hadley (1) dribbles against UTEP Miners guard Corey Camper Jr. (4) during the first half at KFC Yum! Center. / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (6-4, 0-1 ACC) is set to face Kentucky (9-1, 0-0 SEC) on Saturday, Dec. 14 at 5:15 p.m. EST at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Kentucky	Louisville
AP/USAT	5th/5th	NR/NR
SOS	94th	12th
SOR	5th	67th
BPI	11th	60th
NET	4th	61st
RPI	22nd	49th
KenPom	10th	59th
Torvik	9th	52nd
EvanMiya	8th	54th

Team Leaders

	Kentucky	Louisville
Points	Otega Oweh (15.6)	Chucky Hepburn (14.1)
Rebounds	Amari Williams (9.2)	J'Vonne Hadley (8.0)
Assists	Kerr Kriisa (3.8)	Chucky Hepburn (4.8)
Steals	Otega Oweh (1.3)	Chucky Hepburn (3.2)
Blocks	Amari Williams (1.8)	James Scott (1.0)

Scoring

	Kentucky	Louisville
Points Per Game	91.1	76.1
Field Goal %	48.7%	42.5%
FGM/FGA Per Game	33.0/67.7	25.5/60.0
Three Point %	35.5%	27.0%
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	10.2/28.7	8.6/31.8
Free Throw %	73.4%	71.1%
FTM/FTA Per Game	14.9/20.3	16.5/23.2

Rebounding

	Kentucky	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	44.8	38.8
Off. Reb. Per Game	12.2	13.4
Def. Reb. Per Game	32.6	25.4
Rebound Margin	8.0	4.7

Defense

	Kentucky	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	70.3	68.7
Opp. FG%	38.8%	43.1%
Opp. 3PT%	26.3%	33.9%
Steals Per Game		8.1
Blocks Per Game	6.8	3.3
Turnovers Forced Per Game	10.7	15.5

Ball Handling

	Kentucky	Louisville
Assists Per Game	19.1	13.5
Turnovers Per Game	9.6	13.1
Turnover Margin	1.1	2.4
Assist/Turnover Ratio	2.0	1.0

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has a 13.2 percent chance to win against Kentucky. The Cardinals have a BPI rating of 9.4 (60th overall), whereas the Wildcats have a BPI rating of 17.5 (11th overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 15 percent chance to take down the Wildcats, with a projected final score of 83-72 in favor of UK. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +13.34 (59th overall), whereas Kentucky has an adjusted efficiency margin of +23.71 (10th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 16 percent chance to take down the Wildcats, with a projected final score of 84-73 in favor of UK. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .8175 (52nd overall), whereas Kentucky has a "Barthag" of .9279 (9th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Kentucky 86, Louisville 74.

(Photo of J'Vonne Hadley: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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