Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Florida State

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Louisville Cardinals guard Reyne Smith (6) celebrates Noah Waterman’s (93) three pointer during their game against the UTEP Miners on Wednesday, Dec. 11, 2024 at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky. / Clare Grant/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (6-5, 0-1 ACC) is set to face Florida State (9-3, 0-1 ACC) on Saturday, Dec. 21 at 2:00 p.m. EST at the Donald L. Tucker Center in Tallahassee, Fla. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Florida State	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	NR/NR
SOS	94th	11th
SOR	72nd	68th
BPI	71st	60th
NET	71st	61st
RPI	49th	45th
KenPom	65th	61st
Torvik	59th	56th
EvanMiya	76th	50th

Team Leaders

	Florida State	Louisville
Points	Jamir Watkins (19.1)	Chucky Hepburn (15.2)
Rebounds	Malique Ewin (7.7)	J'Vonne Hadley (7.8)
Assists	Daquan Davis (2.2)	Chucky Hepburn (4.8)
Steals	Chandler Jackson (1.6)	Chucky Hepburn (3.0)
Blocks	Taylor Bol Bowen (1.4)	James Scott (0.9)

Scoring

	Florida State	Louisville
Points Per Game	78.4	76.9
Field Goal %	46.1%	42.7%
FGM/FGA Per Game	26.8/58.0	26.0/60.9
Three Point %	31.9%	28.0%
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	6.3/19.8	9.1/32.5
Free Throw %	70.8%	70.7%
FTM/FTA Per Game	18.6/26.3	15.8/22.3

Rebounding

	Florida State	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	35.6	38.1
Off. Reb. Per Game	11.1	13.1
Def. Reb. Per Game	24.5	25.0
Rebound Margin	0.3	3.4

Defense

	Florida State	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	67.4	70.9
Opp. FG%	39.0%	44.4%
Opp. 3PT%	26.5%	35.5%
Steals Per Game	9.6	7.6
Blocks Per Game	5.3	3.0
Turnovers Forced Per Game	16.6	15.1

Ball Handling

	Florida State	Louisville
Assists Per Game	13.8	13.0
Turnovers Per Game	13.6	12.5
Turnover Margin	3.0	2.5
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.0	1.0

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has a 40.8 percent chance to win against Florida State. The Cardinals have a BPI rating of 9.5 (60th overall), whereas the Seminoles have a BPI rating of 8.6 (71st overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 41 percent chance to take down the Seminoles, with a projected final score of 76-73 in favor of FSU. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +13.71 (61st overall), whereas Florida State has an adjusted efficiency margin of +12.53 (65th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 37 percent chance to take down the 'Noles, with a projected final score of 76-73 in favor of FSU. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .8203 (56th overall), whereas Florida State has a "Barthag" of .8078 (59th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 76, Florida State 75.

(Photo of Reyne Smith, Noah Waterman: Clare Grant - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images)

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