Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. North Carolina

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Tar Heels for their Wednesday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Dec 28, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Terrence Edwards Jr. (5) dribbles the ball against Eastern Kentucky Colonels guard Jackson Holt (11) during the first half at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville won 78-76. / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (8-5, 1-1 ACC) is set to face North Carolina (8-5, 1-0 ACC) on Wednesday, Jan. 1 at 6:00 p.m. EST at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Tar Heels:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	N. Carolina	Louisville
AP/USAT	RV/RV	NR/NR
SOS	7th	19th
SOR	50th	63rd
BPI	23rd	65th
NET	38th	60th
RPI	20th	29th
KenPom	29th	60th
Torvik	39th	53rd
EvanMiya	28th	57th

Team Leaders

	N. Carolina	Louisville
Points	R.J. Davis (18.8)	Chucky Hepburn (15.2)
Rebounds	Jalen Washington (4.8)	J'Vonne Hadley (8.0)
Assists	Elliot Cadeau (6.2)	Chucky Hepburn (5.2)
Steals	Seth Trimble (1.8)	Chucky Hepburn (2.8)
Blocks	Ven-Allen Lubin (0.8)	James Scott (0.8)

Scoring

	N. Carolina	Louisville
Points Per Game	86.5	78.0
Field Goal %	47.6%	42.8%
FGM/FGA Per Game	30.2/63.4	26.0/60.7
Three Point %	32.0%	29.9%
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	7.8/24.3	9.7/32.4
Free Throw %	74.3%	72.4%
FTM/FTA Per Game	18.5/24.8	16.3/22.5

Rebounding

	N. Carolina	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	38.6	38.1
Off. Reb. Per Game	10.2	13.1
Def. Reb. Per Game	28.4	25.0
Rebound Margin	2.6	4.5

Defense

	N. Carolina	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	79.4	71.7
Opp. FG%	42.9%	45.1%
Opp. 3PT%	35.5%	36.2%
Steals Per Game	7.2	7.3
Blocks Per Game	3.7	2.9
Turnovers Forced Per Game	11.9	14.3

Ball Handling

	N. Carolina	Louisville
Assists Per Game	14.4	13.3
Turnovers Per Game	11.1	12.2
Turnover Margin	0.8	2.1
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.3	1.1

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has a 36.6 percent chance to win against North Carolina. The Cardinals have a BPI rating of 8.9 (65th overall), whereas the Tar Heels have a BPI rating of 15.5 (23rd overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 46 percent chance to take down the Tar Heels, with a projected final score of 82-81 in favor of UNC. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +13.56 (60th overall), whereas North Carolina has an adjusted efficiency margin of +19.64 (29th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 60 percent chance to take down the Tar Heels, with a projected final score of 84-81 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .8325 (53rd overall), whereas North Carolina has a "Barthag" of .8554 (39th overall).

- Personal Prediction: North Carolina 87, Louisville 86.

(Photo of Terrence Edwards Jr.: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

You can follow Louisville Cardinals On SI for future coverage by liking us on Facebook, Twitter/X and Instagram:

Facebook - @LouisvilleOnSI
Twitter/X - @LouisvilleOnSI
Instagram - @louisvilleonsi

You can also follow Deputy Editor Matthew McGavic at @Matt_McGavic on Twitter/X and @mattmcgavic.bsky.social on Bluesky