Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Virginia

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Jan 1, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Chucky Hepburn (24) reacts during the second half against the North Carolina Tar Heels at KFC Yum! Center. / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (9-5, 2-1 ACC) is set to face Virginia (8-5, 1-1 ACC) on Saturday, Jan. 4 at 4:00 p.m. EST at John Paul Jones Arena in Charlottesville, Va. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Cavaliers:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Virginia	Louisville
AP/USAT	NR/NR	NR/NR
SOS	50th	15th
SOR	76th	56th
BPI	95th	59th
NET	100th	50th
RPI	69th	27th
KenPom	102nd	54th
Torvik	97th	45th
EvanMiya	103rd	53rd

Team Leaders

	Virginia	Louisville
Points	Isaac McKneely (12.2)	Chucky Hepburn (15.9)
Rebounds	Jacob Cofie (5.8)	J'Vonne Hadley (7.9)
Assists	Andrew Rohde (3.2)	Chucky Hepburn (5.6)
Steals	Andrew Rohde (1.0)	Chucky Hepburn (2.6)
Blocks	Blake Buchanan (1.3)	James Scott (0.9)

Scoring

	Virginia	Louisville
Points Per Game	62.2	78.4
Field Goal %	44.4%	43.0%
FGM/FGA Per Game	22.2/50.1	26.0/60.5
Three Point %	38.5%	29.5%
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	8.1/21.0	9.4/32.0
Free Throw %	72.8%	71.4%
FTM/FTA Per Game	9.7/13.3	16.9/23.7

Rebounding

	Virginia	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	31.6	38.4
Off. Reb. Per Game	6.9	12.9
Def. Reb. Per Game	24.7	25.6
Rebound Margin	-0.7	4.6

Defense

	Virginia	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	60.8	71.6
Opp. FG%	39.7%	44.7%
Opp. 3PT%	32.2%	35.6%
Steals Per Game	5.0	7.1
Blocks Per Game	4.2	3.0
Turnovers Forced Per Game	9.8	14.1

Ball Handling

	Virginia	Louisville
Assists Per Game	14.6	13.4
Turnovers Per Game	11.5	11.9
Turnover Margin	1.7	2.2
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.3	1.1

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has a 52.6 percent chance to win against Virginia. The Cardinals have a BPI rating of 9.6 (59th overall), whereas the Cavaliers have a BPI rating of 5.6 (95th overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 56 percent chance to take down the Cavaliers, with a projected final score of 66-64 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +14.84 (54th overall), whereas Virginia has an adjusted efficiency margin of +6.89 (102nd overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 58 percent chance to take down the Cavs, with a projected final score of 63-62 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .8495 (45th overall), whereas Virginia has a "Barthag" of .6953 (97th overall).

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 68, Virginia 61.

(Photo of Chucky Hepburn: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images

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