Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Creighton

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils for their NCAA Tournament matchup, and who the statistical models favor.

Mar 15, 2025; Charlotte, NC, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Terrence Edwards Jr. (5) drives against Duke Blue Devils guard Tyrese Proctor (5) in the second half of the 2025 ACC Conference Championship game at Spectrum Center. Mandatory Credit: Bob Donnan-Imagn Images / Bob Donnan-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (27-7, 18-2 ACC) is set to face Creighton (24-10, 15-5 Big East) on Thursday, Mar. 120 at 12:15 p.m. EST at Rupp Arena in Lexington, Ky. in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Bluejays:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Creighton	Louisville
AP/USAT	RV/RV	10th/11th
SOS	22nd	36th
SOR	24th	10th
BPI	26th	28th
NET	38th	24th
RPI	35th	16th
KenPom	37th	23rd
Torvik	33rd	19th
EvanMiya	32nd	17th

Team Leaders

	Creighton	Louisville
Points	Ryan Kalkbrenner (19.4)	Terrence Edwards Jr. (16.6)
Rebounds	Ryan Kalkbrenner (8.8)	J'Vonne Hadley (7.3)
Assists	Steven Ashworth (6.8)	Chucky Hepburn (5.8)
Steals	Jamiya Neal (0.9)	Chucky Hepburn (2.5)
Blocks	Ryan Kalkbrenner (2.7)	James Scott (1.1)

Scoring

	Creighton	Louisville
Points Per Game	75.2	78.6
Field Goal %	47.5%	45.4%
FGM/FGA Per Game	27.0/56.8	27.0/59.4
Three Point %	33.9%	33.0%
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	9.4/27.9	9.4/28.5
Free Throw %	73.3%	74.4%
FTM/FTA Per Game	11.9/16.2	15.2/20.5

Rebounding

	Creighton	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	37.7	37.4
Off. Reb. Per Game	8.6	11.2
Def. Reb. Per Game	29.1	26.3
Rebound Margin	3.4	4.1

Defense

	Creighton	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	69.5	68.9
Opp. FG%	41.2%	42.5%
Opp. 3PT%	32.7%	33.7%
Steals Per Game	3.7	6.4
Blocks Per Game	4.6	2.9
Turnovers Forced Per Game	8.0	12.9

Ball Handling

	Creighton	Louisville
Assists Per Game	17.1	14.0
Turnovers Per Game	12.3	11.4
Turnover Margin	-4.3	1.5
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.4	1.2

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has a 47.5 percent chance to win against Creighton. The Cardinals have a BPI rating of 14.0 (28th overall), whereas the Bluejays have a BPI rating of 14.6 (26th overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 60 percent chance to take down the Bluejays, with a projected final score of 75-72 in favor of UofL. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +22.64 (23rd overall), whereas Creighton has an adjusted efficiency margin of +18.70 (37th overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 63 percent chance to take down the Jays, with a projected final score of 75-72 in favor of UofL. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .9288 (19th overall), whereas Creighton has a "Barthag" of .8852 (33rd overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Louisville 77, Creighton 71.

(Photo of Terrence Edwards Jr: Bob Donnan - Imagn Images

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