Tale of The Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Duke

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils for their Sunday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

Dec 3, 2024; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward Khani Rooths (9) shoots against Mississippi Rebels guard Davon Barnes (7) during the second half at KFC Yum! Center. Mississippi defeated Louisville 86-63. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (5-3, 0-0 ACC) is set to face Duke (6-2, 0-0 ACC) in their ACC opener on Sunday, Dec. 8 at 6:00 p.m. EST at the KFC Yum! Center in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Blue Devils:

*Mobile users can scroll left and right on the tables below*

Rankings

	Duke	Louisville
AP/USAT	9th/9th	RV/NR
SOS	17th	19th
SOR	13th	62nd
NET	4th	61st
RPI	25th	47th
BPI	2nd	59th
KenPom	3rd	53rd
Torvik	1st	56th
EvanMiya	3rd	50th

Team Leaders

	Duke	Louisville
Points	Cooper Flagg (16.6)	Chucky Hepburn (15.1)
Rebounds	Cooper Flagg (8.8)	J'Vonne Hadley (7.5)
Assists	Cooper Flagg (4.1)	Chucky Hepburn (4.5)
Steals	Maliq Brown (2.0)	Chucky Hepburn (3.5)
Blocks	Cooper Flagg (1.5)	James Scott (1.3)

Scoring

	Duke	Louisville
Points Per Game	81.1	77.4
Field Goal %	46.7%	43.4%
FGM/FGA Per Game	28.8/61.5	26.6/61.4
Three Point %	36.6%	27.3%
3PTM/3PTA Per Game	10.9/29.8	8.6/31.6
Free Throw %	71.3%	70.1%
FTM/FTA Per Game	12.8/17.9	15.5/22.1

Rebounding

	Duke	Louisville
Rebounds Per Game	40.4	39.3
Off. Reb. Per Game	11.9	13.8
Def. Reb. Per Game	28.5	25.5
Rebound Margin	6.9	4.6

Defense

	Duke	Louisville
Opp. Points Per Game	61.0	67.1
Opp. FG%	36.6%	41.9%
Opp. 3PT%	29.2%	33.9%
Steals Per Game	9.1	8.5
Blocks Per Game	4.1	3.8
Turnovers Forced Per Game	14.0	16.6

Ball Handling

	Duke	Louisville
Assists Per Game	16.6	14.0
Turnovers Per Game	10.6	13.1
Turnover Margin	3.4	3.5
Assist/Turnover Ratio	1.6	1.1

Predictions

- ESPN Prediction: Per ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Louisville has a 18.7 percent chance to win against Duke. UofL has a BPI rating of 10.0 (59th overall), whereas DU has a BPI rating of 21.9 (2nd overall).

- KenPom Prediction: Per KenPom.com, the Cardinals have a 25 percent chance to take down the Blue Devils, with a projected final score of 74-66 in favor of Duke. Louisville has an adjusted efficiency margin of +14.52 (53rd overall), whereas Duke has an adjusted efficiency margin of +30.57 (3rd overall).

- Torvik Prediction: Per BartTorvik.com, the Cards have a 22 percent chance to take down the Devils, with a projected final score of 75-67 in favor of Duke. Louisville has a "Barthag" of .8140 (56th overall), whereas Duke has a "Barthag" of .9663 (1st overall).

- Personal Prediction: Duke 78, Louisville 65.

(Photo of Khani Rooths: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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