Louisville Trending Towards a Return to NCAA Tournament

The Cardinals have missed the last four NCAA Tournaments.

Jan 7, 2025; Louisville, Kentucky, USA; Louisville Cardinals forward Khani Rooths (9) celebrates after making a three point shot during the second half against the Clemson Tigers at KFC Yum! Center. Louisville defeated Clemson 74-64. / Jamie Rhodes-Imagn Images

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - As fans of the Louisville men's basketball program are very well aware of, it has been quite a while since the Cardinals have had a taste of NCAA Tournament success - or even made the Big Dance to begin with.

Not counting the COVID 2020 season, Louisville has missed out on the last four NCAA Tournaments. It's the longest stretch without making it to the Big Dance since a seven year stretch of not going from the 1951-52 season the the 1957-58 season. Even then, there were still five straight NIT appearance during that time.

Additionally, Louisville hasn't won a game in the NCAA Tournament since Donovan Mitchell and Co. beat Jacksonville State to kick off their 2017 run. The Cardinals also haven't gotten to the second weekend since 2015.

Needless to say, it's been a while since Louisville has had a chance to get to the Big Dance. However, it's becoming increasingly likely that this stretch of futility could soon be coming to an end.

Their first year under head coach Pat Kelsey, up to this point, has been a rousing success. Just past the halfway point of the regular season, Louisville is 11-5, are on a five-game winning streak, have a handful of resume-boosting victories and have yet to lose to a team outside of the KenPom top-50. In fact, Louisville in 6-5 against teams in Quadrant 1 and 2 of the NET.

Louisville is slowly putting together a season worthy of inclusion in the Big Dance - and national publications are starting to pick up on it. In an ESPN piece published Wednesday ranking 76 teams into tiers based on their NCAA Tournament potential, Louisville was included in the "Can win a tournament game" tier.

"A NCAA tournament win by first-year head coaches at West Virginia, Utah State, Louisville and Ohio State would make the supporters of those programs feel as if they were ahead-of-schedule in their respective rebuilding efforts," staff writer Myron Medcalf wrote.

Even ESPN's famed bracketologist, Joe Lunardi, thinks that Louisville is not only on the plus-side of the bubble, they're slowly working their way off the tournament bubble and into at-large lock territory.

In Lunardi's most recent Bracketology update, he has Louisville as the second team mentioned in his "Last Four Byes" section. The Cardinals are a No. 10 seed in this update.

Other bracketologists think that Louisville is trending towards making the Big Dance as well. Of the 53 brackets used on the website BracketMatrix.com, the Cardinals are included in 43 of them, and place as high as a No. 8 seed.

Of course, there is still plenty of basketball left to be played, starting with a difficult road showdown at Pitt this weekend. When asked about the prospect of making the tournament after their win over North Carolina, Kelsey didn't want to put the cart before the horse.

"I can't do it. I think we're a really, really good team. Let's just say that," he said.

That being said, Louisville's stock is very much trending at an upwards trajectory, and getting back to the NCAA Tournament seems like a very attainable goal at this point.

(Photo of Khani Rooths: Jamie Rhodes - Imagn Images)

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