Louisville Football 2021 Season Preview
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The long and tortuous offseason is almost over, and the 2021 college football season is just around the corner. After being subjected to a far from normal season in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic, a modicum of normalcy has returned (so far), and the University of Louisville football program is gearing up for their third year under head coach Scott Satterfield.
The Cardinals went 8-5 in 2019 in Satterfield's first year, one which included a bowl win and Satterfield winning ACC Coach of the Year. In 2020 however, Louisville had a bit of a skid, as they fell to 4-7 on the year. Coupled with a brief 'conversation' with South Carolina on Satterfield's behalf, as well as losing four position coaches, and the program didn't generate much buzz and hype during the first few months of the offseason, outside of inking a solid recruiting class.
At face value, it seems that the overall trajectory of the program might not necessarily be where it should. But a deeper dive into this team reveals that not only can they have a bounce back year, but can steadily climb the Atlantic Division totem pole.
A Look at the Offense
If you looked at basic stats from last season, Louisville still had a fairly potent offense. They sported the 48th-ranked passing offense (244.2 YPG), as well the 29th-ranked rushing offense (200.0). However, they were handcuffed by one massive problem: turnovers. The Cardinals coughed up the ball a whopping 24 times, the fourth-worst mark in FBS last season. Louisville will have to make a concerted effort to protect the football in 2021, as it was the number one factor in losses during 50/50 games
Most of this effort will come from quarterback Malik Cunningham, as the now-redshirt junior accounted for 15 turnovers in 2020 - 12 interceptions and three lost fumbles. But he has a stranglehold on QB1, as threw for 2,617 yards and 20 touchdowns while running for 609 yards and seven scores last year. When you take into account that a lot of his turnovers can be attributed to sheer bad luck, signs point to him having a season akin to 2019 - where he set the school record for passing efficiency.
Including Cunningham, the offense returns eight starters from last season. But considering the three that departed - wide receivers Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick and running back Javian Hawkins - accounted 2,280 total yards of offense in 2020, there are several questions as to who will pickup the bulk of the reps in the wide receiver and running backs room.
The receiver room might be largely unproven, but there is tons of potential. Braden Smith kicked off his Cardinals career with a 110-yard performance against WKU last year, Jordan Watkins and Justin Marshall have both had a good spring and fall, converted Georgia Southern quarterback Shai Werts could be a threat in the slot, and speedster Tyler Harrell has received a ton of hype. It also helps to have a threat like tight end Marshon Ford, who tallied 309 yards and six touchdowns on 25 receptions, and will also see some reps at receiver.
It's a bit of the same story at running back with Hawkins gone, although there appears to be more of a plan there. Louisville is still trying to determine their running back rotations, but it appears that Jalen Mitchell and Hassan Hall will be 1a and 1b. Mitchell finished the year at 6.7 yards per carry, and Hall is finally fully healthy after being dinged up a lot last year. Maurice Burkley and newcomer Trevion Cooley will get some run as well.
In year three of the Satterfield era, the offensive line finally has the depth they need, and this could arguably be one of the strongest and deepest units on the team. It returns four starters - Cole Bentley, Caleb Chandler, Adonis Boone and Renato Brown - with Trevor Reid elevated to the starter in place of the departing Robbie Bell. Bryan Hudson, Luke Kandra and newcomer Michael Gonzalez round out the eight-man primary rotation. While this unit wasn't *great* preventing sacks and TFLs (2.73 and 8.45 allowed per game in 2020, respectively), they should be vastly improved due to the experience and depth they bring. Especially since they are being led by new OL coach Jack Bicknell, who has nearly 30 years of college and NFL experience.
A Look at the Defense
Heading into last season, many thought that the offense would be what would win Louisville games, and that defense would lag behind. It took a few games, but the exact opposite came to pass. The Cardinals finished the 2020 season with the 49th-ranked scoring defense (26.6 PPG) and the 39th-ranked total defense (369.1 YPG allowed). However, like their offensive counterpart, turnovers were their weakness. Louisville could only secure 12 total takeaways on the season (five interceptions, seven fumbles), leading to them instituting a "turnover gauntlet" in the offseason. Time will tell if this resulting in more secured interceptions and forced fumbles.
Generating pass rush pressure out of the defensive line has been a weakness on that side fo the ball for a few years now, and it seems like that could start to finally change. Defensive end YaYa Diaby has had one of the best offseasons out of anyone on the roster, even going so far as to set a ten-sack goal in 2021. Others like Tabarius Peterson, Ramon Puryear and newcomer Ashton Gillotte will give Louisville some depth on the edge. There are a couple solid options at nose tackle following Jared Goldwire's departure, with Southern Miss transfer Jacques Turner and Malik Clark giving Louisville both talent and experience at that position.
Louisville's group of inside and outside linebackers might be the most talented group on the roster from top to bottom. Leading tackler CJ Avery and 2020 defensive x-factor Monty Montgomery could very well be the top ILB duo in the entire ACC. OLB Yasir Abdullah might be the best pure pass rusher on the team after finishing 2020 strong, and fellow starter on the other side, Jack Fagot, has had a seamless transition from safety to 3-4 OLB. Nick Okeke and Marvin Dallas are more than serviceable backups behind them.
The secondary, despite having the 17th-ranked pass defense (189.2 PYPG) in 2020, has a lot of question marks. The Cardinals saw 10 corners and safeties depart the program last year, as well as their safeties coach. Fortunately, they were able to secure some high-caliber talent in return. Georgia Southern transfer safety Kenderick Duncan is drawing the same praise corner Kei'Trel Clark did last offseason, and Alcorn State transfer safety Qwynnterrio Cole is built for the P5 level. That's on top of retaining Clark, who has very real All-American potential, as well as veteran Chandler Jones who can play both corner and safety. Depth could be a slight concern, especially at safety, but the first string group is extremely capable of containing most passing attacks.
A Look at the Special Teams
Louisville found a potential star in the making at placekicker last season. As a true freshman, James Turner converted on 13-of-15 field goals and was a perfect 40-of-40 extra points. Unfortunately, that was the only bright spot out of Louisville's specialists. Louisville had a two-horse race at punter between Logan Lupo and Ryan Harwell, and neither could really excel, leading to many uphill field position battles. Both transferred out, but the program brought on Australian punter Mark Vassett, who can consistently boot the ball 40+ yards.
Bottom Line
In the preseason, Louisville was voted to finish sixth in the Atlantic Division. While I can understand the rationale behind that given their subpar 2020 season, there is evidence to suggest they will not repeat the lack of success in 2021.
A lot will hinge on this team's ability to both prevent and secure takeaways, but it's hard to imagine the Cardinals being as unlucky as they were in both departments last year. There are near-guaranteed wins (Duke, Syracuse), near-guaranteed losses (Clemson), and a bunch of 50/50 games.
If the offense can consistently drive down the field without giving up the ball, and the defense can replicate the success they had last year while maybe giving more possessions to the offense, expect more 50/50 games to go Louisville's way and not vice versa. It is my opinion that they are the third-best team in the Atlantic Division, behind Clemson and NC State
7-5 in very attainable for this team, and could easily be in the conversation for 8-4.
(Photo of Cardinal Stadium via University of Louisville Atheltics)
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