Are ACC Championship and College Football Playoff Berths Still in Play for Louisville?

It's highly unlikely, but not impossible for the Cardinals to reach either the conference title game or new 12-team playoff.

Louisville Cardinals defensive lineman Tramel Logan (19) celebrates with Corey Thornton (14) after sacking Austin Peay Governors running back O'Shaan Allison (0) during their game on Saturday, Aug. 31, 2024 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Ky. / Clare Grant/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Up to this point in time, the Louisville football program certainly hasn't had the season many fans were expected - for a number of reasons.

Coming off of a season where they made the ACC Championship Game in year one under head coach Jeff Brohm, the Cardinals had a hearty midseason slump. After winning their first three games of the 2024 season, Louisville then proceeded to drop three of their next four, flirting with .500 and having no real sense of direction as it pertains to the season.

But as of late, things have really started to turn around. They were able to clinch victory from the jaws of defeat at Boston College for a 20-point comeback victory, then the next week, Louisville punched Clemson in right the mouth in their own stadium, leaving Death Valley with their first ever win over the Tigers.

Looking at how things are trending for both Louisville and the three teams left in front of them, even with the midseason woes, there still exists the possiblity of a good season. Stanford is one of the worst teams in the FBS, Pitt looks vulnerable, and Kentucky is having a very down year. Run the table moving forward heading into the bowl game, and you can unequivocally call it a "good season" for Louisville.

In my deepest "ESPN 30 for 30" voice: What if I told you that the potential for a "special season" for Louisville is still in play?

Given how things have gone for Louisville at times this year, you might think that the potential to clinch berths for both the ACC Championship Game and even the new 12-team College Football Playoff are off the table. Well, as the saying goes, "so you're telling me there's a chance?"

Let's start with their chance to make it to the ACC Championship Game. Currently, Louisville is fourth in the ACC standings at 4-2 behind leader SMU at 5-0, Clemson at 6-1 and Miami at 5-1. The only other team with less than three losses is Pitt at 3-2.

Even in this position, having lost to two of the three teams in front of them, there is a chance for Louisville to back door their way to Charlotte. Let's break it down:

First, Louisville has to take care of their own business and beat both Stanford this weekend and Pitt. Additionally, Clemson has to lose this weekend at Pitt, and Miami has to lose to either Wake Forest or Syracuse.

In this scenario, Louisville, Clemson and Miami would finish in a three-way tie for second place in the ACC at 6-2. At that point, you'd have to go to the tiebreakers to determine who would face SMU in Charlotte for the ACC title.

Because Miami and Clemson have not played each other, and there are an uneven amount of common opponents between the three, the tiebreaker - per the ACC's website - would not get settled until bullet point B5. Here, it is determined by combined win percentage of conference opponents.

Louisville would win this tiebreaker over Clemson and Miami due to the fact that they have arguably the hardest conference schedule in the league. As of this writing, per the ACC standings, Louisville's schedule has the top five opponents (including both Pitt and Georgia Tech) in the league. Meanwhile, Clemson and Miami have both benefitted from relatively easy schedules.

That being said, it's still a small chance of happening. If Clemson beats Pitt, that squashes any chance of Louisville getting to Charlotte.

But even if Louisvilles doesn't get another shot at winning the ACC Championship, if they run the table, there exists a world in which they can get a hefty consolation prize: a College Football Playoff berth.

Even with the Cardinals being off this past weekend, the CFP selection committee bumped up Louisville from No. 22 all the way up to No. 19. Now, some of this was a byproduct of a chaotic week of college football, but the committee seemingly views Louisville's resume in high regard. If the Cardinals do finish the regular season at 9-3, it's not outside of the realm of possibility that they could be in contention for one of the final at-large bids.

Now, obviously, Louisville would need some help. But there is a path for some of the teams in front of the Cards to get knocked out of the way.

In the Big 12, No. 16 Kansas State has to go to previously top-ten Iowa State to end the season. No. 17 Colorado is trending to face No. 6 BYU in the Big 12 title game. No. 15 Texas A&M hosts No. 3 Texas to end the regular season. No. 12 Georgia faces No. 7 Tennessee this weekend, which could send either team behind Louisville this time next week.

There would need to be a decent amount of chaos to go with Louisville running the table, but this has already been a college football season that many have compared to the infamous 2007 season. Nothing seems impossible - that includes potentially a three-loss Louisville sneaking into the playoff.

Now, there's a very small chance a berth to either the ACC Championship Game or the College Football Playoff comes to fruition. UofL statistician Kelly Dickey says there is an eight percent chance of the ACC chaos scenario playing out to punch the Cardinals' ticket to the ACC Championship Game, while ESPN gives Louisville just a 3.8 percent chance to make the College Football Playoff.

But... neither are zero. Yet.

(Photo via Clare Grant - Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK)

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