What a Dream, Realistic and Disappointing Season Looks Like for Louisville in 2024

The Cardinals are heading into year two of the Jeff Brohm era.

L&N Stadium / University of Louisville Athletics

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Year one of the Jeff Brohm era went much better than many people expected. While there was a bit of a slide in the final month, the Cardinals still went 10-4 during the 2023 season, including their first ever appearance in the ACC Championship Game.

As we head into year two under Brohm, Louisville has been generating some serious hype both at the local and national level. So what does a dream season, realistic season and disappointing season look like for the Cardinals in 2024? We break it down here:

Dream Season

While the ultimate dream would be to go a perfect 12-0 this upcoming season, we're going to stay grounded in reality here. Looking the talent that they have coming back, and what they have brought in via the portal, going 10-2 or better is what a dream season would look like for Louisville in 2024.

In order to do this, Louisville will have to play complimentary and consistent football on both sides of the line of scrimmage. On offense, this primarily means that the passing game more so closely resembles what we have come to expect from a Jeff Brohm offense. Quarterback Tyler Shough not only plays the entire season, his playmaking ability places him amongst the best in the league. The wide receivers have elite play at the top, along with someone (or multiple) behind their top three stepping up. Louisville would also have a go-to All-ACC caliber tight end in the passing game established, as well as good receiving production at the position overall. While the ground game isn't as electric as it was last season, Louisville gets more than enough out of it for opposing defenses to respect it, and the offensive line looks much better in run blocking.

On paper, Louisville looks to be a team that will be primarily led by their defense. In a dream season, this means that side of the line of scrimmage finishes as one of the best in the ACC, if not all of the FBS. The defensive line (and front seven as a whole) continues to get fantastic production at the point of attack, and their depth means there is no step back in efficiency in the final month. On the back end, the collection of talent at both cornerback and safety ensures that the Cardinals have a secondary that give almost every quarterback they face some major fits.

If Louisville is to achieve this dream season, they'll have to pull through against the majority of the more high-profile teams on their schedule. Of course, they'll have to ensure that they beat the teams they're expected to beat, and not have any hiccups along the way. But, they'll have to take down at least two of the following teams: Clemson, Kentucky, Miami, and Notre Dame - all of which but Miami are on the road. Additionally, if it is truly a "dream season," unless they win the ACC and get to the College Football Playoff, it has to involve finally taking down Kentucky and snapping their five-game streak in the series.

Realistic Season

Now let's come back down to Earth a little bit. If we're talking about realistic expectations for the Louisville football program heading into the 2023 season, that likely sits at the 8-4 mark. Maybe 9-3 depending on how the schedule shakes out.

Shough certainly is much more of a playmaker than Plummer was last season, both with his arms and his legs. That being said, he hasn't played a full season in three years, and has been turnover prone at times due to his gunslinging nature (36-to-17 career TD/INT ratio). With the pass catchers, in this situation, Louisville gets great production from their starting wide receivers and tight end, with mixed game-by-game results behind them. The Cardinals would likely have a rushing attack that is good, but not great, in part because the offensive line's run blocking doesn't take as big of a step forward as needed.

Over on defense, Louisville's depth and talent is something that should be more enough that handle the bottom seven teams on their schedule. As for the top five teams (the aforementioned top four plus SMU, who Louisville plays at home), this is where their efficiency does take a bit of a step back, but should still be enough to help Louisville remain in the game. Or we have a situation play out like last season where attrition, injuries or simply execution takes a tumble in the final month. Either that, or the fact that while linebacker isn't the liability we thought it was this time last season, it's still the position with the least amount of overall experience. Opposing offenses could find a way to exploit it.

Louisville does have the talent to go toe-to-toe some of the tougher teams on their schedule, but they will still be difficult to win nonetheless - especially considering three of their five toughest games, and their top two, are on the road. Plus, we saw first hand last season with the Pitt game how Brohm-led teams are occasionally subject inexplicable stinkers.

Long story short, in a "realistic season," two of the following come to pass while one does not:

• Beat Clemson or Miami to stay on track in ACC title race
• Beat Kentucky to snap the streak
• Don't suffer a stinker vs. bottom seven teams on schedule

Disappointing Season

Considering Louisville does have the pieces on both sides of the ball to potentially make a run at returning to Charlotte, or at the very least remain in the hunt for the majority of the season, a 7-5 record or worse seems like the benchmark for a disappointing season.

In this case, we would probably see both sides of the ball struggle to in some capacity, or one side of the ball does an abhorrent job of doing so. That, or we start to see that Brohm's transfer-heavy roster building approach isn't as reliable as last season's suggestion.

Offensively, this could mean that Shough, once again, suffers some sort of injury that causes him to miss some time. Either that, or the group of pass catchers outside of Caullin Lacy fail to be a consistent threat in the passing game. Louisville would also have a pedestrian run game at best, whether that's due to no one stepping forward to be "the guy" at running back, or the offensive line not clicking after bringing in a lot of newcomers.

On defense, this likely means that the linebacking corps takes a bit of a step back, or either the defensive line or secondary (or both in a doomsday scenario) don't hold up their end of their complementary football bargain. Maybe the line can't get home like it didn't as much in the final month of the season, or maybe the defensive backs give up way too many big plays like it did during the same time.

Given the talent level of the team, 7-5 seems like the absolute floor for Louisville. In thus scenario, they might sneak in one victory against the top five teams on their schedule, and also fail to really impose their will against the bottom seven. Anything less than that, and something probably went horribly wrong, whether that be rampant injuries or coaching malpractice.

(Photo of L&N Stadium via University of Louisville Athletics)

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