Five Questions Heading Into Louisville's Fall Camp
(Photo of Scott Satterfield: Sam Upshaw Jr. - Courier Journal, Louisville Courier Journal via Imagn Content Services, LLC)
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - At this point, it seems like Louisville football's home beatdown against Wake Forest to end the 2020 season was years ago. Bu the long and torturous offseason is almost in the rear view mirror.
The Cardinals are set to begin their two-week long fall camp on Sunday, Aug. 8, ahead of their 2021 season-opener against Ole Miss on Monday, Sept. 6 down in Atlanta, Ga. as part of the Chick-Fil-A Kickoff Game.
Heading into Scott Satterfield's third season as the head coach, there is no shortage of storylines. Here are our five biggest questions surrounding the Louisville football program heading into the start of fall camp:
Who will emerge as the go-to guy on offense?
This is probably the biggest question as it pertains to strictly the offensive side of the ball. With wide receivers Tutu Atwell and Dez Fitzpatrick, as well as running back Javian Hawkins now in the NFL, Louisville lost not one, not two, but their top three offensive weapons.
Those three accounted 2,280 yards of offense in 2020, or 46.7% of Louisville's total offense. With the Cardinals losing so much production, there is now plenty of competition as to who will become the next "go-to guy" on that side of the ball.
Among pass-catchers, the most returning production comes from tight end Marshon Ford, as he tallied 309 yards and six touchdowns on 25 receptions. Wideout Braden Smith logged 27 receptions for 370 yards, wide receiver Justin Marshall caught seven passes for 87 yards despite being the third starting receiver behind Atwell and Fitzpatrick, and Jordan Watkins showed flashes of brilliance in his freshman season
But over the course of the offseason, there have been a few receivers who have started to make a name for themselves in practice, and are primed to break out. The coaching staff loves the speed from Tyler Harrell, and are also high on newly-converted quarterback Shai Werts. True freshmen Ahmari Huggins-Bruce and Demetrius Cannon could also make some early noise.
As for the running back room, that will more than likely still be running back by committee, unless someone really stands out. Jalen Mitchell, the presumptive week one 'starter', led the Cardinals in yards per carry with 6.7, rushing for 347 yards and a pair of scores. Injuries plagued both Hassan Hall and Maurice Burkley, but both appear healthy heading into fall camp. Syracuse transfer Jawhar Jordan has a similar skillset to Hall, and the all-purpose back could see the field in a number of ways.
Will Malik Cunningham return to his 2019 form?
Many were wondering how much higher quarterback Malik Cunningham would go after putting forth a stellar 2019 campaign, in which he set the school record for passing efficiency. Instead, there was a bit of regression.
By all accounts, he still had a decent 2020 season. He completed 64.1% of his passes and averaged 237.9 passing yards per game, both of which were career-highs.. The problem, however, was that he was the biggest contributor to Louisville's turnover woes. He threw 12 interceptions as well as fumbled three times - over half of the Cardinals lost turnovers.
With so many defenses keying on Tutu Atwell and the coaching staff under-utilizing Dez Fitzpatrick, Cunningham never truly seemed comfortable, many times opting to make just one read on most plays. It also didn't help that he was getting sacked 2.73 times per game.
Hiring Pete Thomas as the quarterbacks coach was probably one of the better coaching staff hires Louisville made this offseason, as the two are very familiar with one another, and will give Cunningham the best chance to improve in the turnover department.
To be fair, a significant chunk of Cunningham's turnovers were either not entirely his fault, or a complete fluke. While he has stated that fixing turnovers is "not something you can work on", he has spent a significant amount of time in the film room trying to correct the turnovers that can be corrected on his behalf.
Will the defense generate more pass rush pressure?
Before the defense started to take off in the latter half of the 2020 season, they really struggled at times. While a variety of factors can be blamed for their slow start, their inability to generate pressure was arguably close to the top of the list. Last season, the Cardinals generated just 2.00 sacks and 5.7 tackles for loss per game, both of which ranked just 12th in the Atlantic Coast Conference.
While the defense did give up 179.9 rushing yards per game, where they arguably need to advance the most on that side of the ball is in their pass rush. Per Football Outsiders, their sack rate on standard downs (1st down, 2nd & 7 or fewer, 3rd & 4 or fewer, 4th & 4 or fewer) was actually 8.0% - good for 12th in FBS. But their sack rate on passing downs? Just 5.4%, or 103rd in FBS.
Fortunately, the program has done a good job in this offseason at building depth in the front seven. On top of bringing in a great defensive recruiting class, players like true freshmen defensive end Ashton Gillotte and Southern Miss transfer defensive tackle Jacques Turner should make an impact early in the season.
Louisville also welcomes back pass several key defensive assets, including linebackers CJ Avery, Monty Montgomery and Yasir Abdullah. With the combined veteran experience and newfound depth added, the Cardinals have a recipe for more pressure int he backfield. They just need to execute.
Can the secondary build on their momentum from last season?
Most people will admittedly tell you that they were not expecting Louisville's defense to outperform the offense in the 2020 season. Just two years removed from fielding one of the worst defenses in college football, that side of the ball was their strong suit this past season, particularly in the secondary. Not only did the Cardinals allow just 26.6 points per game, but had the 17th-best passing defense at 189.2 yards per game.
The secondary should still be very good in 2021, but there has been a lot of turnover amongst the defensive backs. Between the NFL and the transfer portal, Louisville lost an astounding nine defensive backs - the most out of any position group - including four who started a game last season.
That's not to say there isn't talent leftover. Louisville retains arguably one of their best players on the team in cornerback Kei'Trel Clark, as well as Chandler Jones, Greedy Vance and Josh Minkins.
Plus, the program is brought in a plethora of talent in the secondary, as they added nine corners and safeties to replace the ones who left. The highlights of the newcomers are true freshman safety Benjamin Perry, Georigia Southern transfer safety Kenderick Duncan Jr., and Alcorn State transfer safety Qwynnterrio Cole.
With the amount of players the shuffled in that area of the field, it will be an interesting transition from 2020 to 2021.
Can the team improve their turnover margin from 2020?
I know, I'm tired of writing about them as much as you are hearing about them. But whenever you tell the story about the 2020 season for Louisville, that conversation starts, and probably ends with, turnovers. The Cardinals had a turnover margin of -12, which was the second-worst in FBS behind only Duke's -19,
Most of this was because of how often the offense coughed it up, as they lost 24 turnovers - good for fourth-worst behind Georgia Tech & Mississippi State's 25 and Duke's 39. The defense didn't do the offense a lot of favors either, as they were only able to corral 13 turnovers in Louisville's favor. Many times they found themselves in the right positions to make make a play, but couldn't quite reel in the interception.
How much did this truly affect Louisville's final record? Think about it like this: Per Football Outsiders, the Cardinals scored a touchdown on 33.1% of their offensive drives (38th in FBS), but also turned it over on 18.2% of their drives (119th in FBS).
Plus, a lot of Louisville's turnovers can be attributed to just plain bad luck. On first and second down with the score within 16 points, a situation where turnovers can be largely attributed to luck rather than aggressive play, the Cardinals had the worst turnover margin in the nation at -9.
In laymen's terms, not only was the offense was very much boom or bust, but the team's overall turnover luck was extraordinarily bad. If both sides of the ball can improve in this department, the sky could possibly be the limit for Louisville.
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