How M.J. Griffin's Injury Impacts Louisville's Defense
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Injuries are a common occurrence in football. It doesn't matter if you're close to the bottom of the collegiate pecking order or a national title contender, it's a fact that injuries are bound to happen. It's just a matter of the frequency and the severity.
Unfortunately, this was a cold hard fact the Louisville football found out the hard way this past week. Head coach Jeff Brohm announced on Saturday that M.J. Griffin, the Cardinals' starting free safety, will “probably” miss the entirety of the 2023 season after suffering a “lower leg injury” in fall camp earlier in the week.
Losing Griffin for the potentially the entire season is undoubtedly a massive blow to Louisville's defense. Despite seeing meaningful playing time in only eight of the 13 games, the 6-foot-1, 210-pound defensive back finished seventh on the team in tackles with 45, while also logging a pair of interceptions and a forced fumble in the process.
But outside of the stat line, how does the loss of Griffin impact Louisville's safety room and defense overall?
First and foremost, the Ypsilanti, Mich. native played a key role in Louisville's defensive turnaround during the 2022 season. Over the first five games of the year, the Cardinals struggled to contain big plays through the air. In fact, it was arguably the biggest factor behind their 2-3 start to the season.
During this stretch, Griffin saw a very limited role. He played in all five games, but almost exclusively on special teams. He played just two defensive snaps against UCF, then 23 snaps against USF mainly in garbage time.
Following an injury to regular starting free safety Kenderick Duncan, Griffin was elevated to starter for the Cardinals' road contest at Virginia. Not only did he subsequently hold this spot for the rest of the season, his elevation to starter coincided with a dramatic decrease in the amount of big time passing plays the defense was giving up.
During their 2-3 start to the 2022 season, Louisville was allowing an average of 210.4 passing yards per game. In the final eight games of their 2022 campaign, a stretch where the Cards went 6-2 including a four-game winning streak, they only gave up 188.6 passing yards per game.
It goes without saying that whoever Louisville tabs to replace Griffin in the starting lineup will have massive shoes to fill. So who are the options at the Cardinals' disposal?
The most likely candidate to take over as the Cardinals' starting free safety, in my opinion, is Baylor transfer Devin Neal. Like Griffin, he has a fair amount of collegiate experience both overall and as a starter. He spent three seasons in Waco, Tex., and was a key part of the Bears' safety rotation in 2022. In 11 games and seven starts that season, he logged 41 total tackles (31 solo), 2.0 tackles for loss, a sack, two interceptions, a forced fumble and a pass breakup.
Also like Griffin, while Neal does do well in pass coverage, his niche is in run support. He had a run defense grade of 81.5 according to Pro Football Focus, which was not only second on the team, but 18th in all of the Big 12. Adding to that, Neal has the luxury of having both the spring and fall to get acclimated to the new system, and has looked good in fall camp up to this point.
While Neal has the inside track to take over as the starter, expect North Carolina transfer Cam'Ron Kelly to get a lot of run on the back end as well. Not only is this because of co-defensive coordinator Ron English's desire to rotate bodies often to keep the starters fresh, Kelly has long proven himself to be a playmaker during his four seasons in Chapel Hill, N.C.
Started all 12 regular season games last season, Kelly collected 49 tackles (30 solo), an interception, a pass break up and an assist on a tackle for loss. His best season came in 2021 as a junior, when he set a career-high in tackles with 69, snagged a team-best four interceptions, and also tallied three pass break ups en route to Third-Team All-ACC honors.
While the Chesapeake, Va. native did take a bit of a step back last season and was a touch inconsistent at times, especially in coverage, he has proven in the past that he can make plays.
It also would not be surprising to see players at STAR, the linebacker/safety hybrid position in this 4-2-5 defense, play double duty and take some snaps at true safety. This is largely because Brohm also recently announced that D'Angelo Hutchinson, the only other scholarship safety on the roster outside of starting strong safety Josh Minkins, will be "out for an extended period of time," further depleting the overall depth on the back end.
If this winds up happening, Louisville does has some depth options. Benjamin Perry is coming off of a breakout season, Miami transfer Gilbert Frierson has seen lots of meaningful football during his times with the Canes, and Antonio Watts has been a standout for the Cardinals in both the spring and fall.
Even with the options and depth that Louisville does have at the safety position, replacing an impact playmaker like Griffin will not be easy. Time will tell how the coaches and players plan to rally around him.
(Photo of M.J. Griffin: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)
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