Louisville Aiming to Improve Road Efficiency vs. Talented Miami Squad
LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Heading into the final couple weeks of the 2023 regular season, the Louisville football program is currently playing some of their best football.
Ever since their loss to Pitt, their only loss so far this season, they've fired off a three-game winning streak in which they've out-scored their opponents 88-27. Because of that, the Cardinals are not only the overwhelming favorite to meet Florida State in the ACC Championship, but an outside shot at the College Football Playoff is still on the table - although some chaos in front is very much needed.
The only thing standing between them and a punched ticket to Charlotte are the Miami Hurricanes, Louisville's next opponent. While the Canes have not had the season that many anticipated, they are still very much a dangerous team that has the potential to derail a special season for the Cardinals.
On top of that, one of the biggest factors of this game that is playing against the Cardinals is not just the team they are facing, but where it is being played. With 10 games in the books, it's a big enough sample size to show that Louisville is a very different team when playing away from L&N Stadium.
"I think that we faced some good opponents on the road and every game is competitive, every advantage you have to try to take," head coach Jeff Brohm said. "When you're at home and the crowds on your side and the noise levels on your side, it's an advantage."
At home, Louisville has been flat-out dominant. They're a perfect 6-0 at L&N Stadium, have an average margin of victory of 26.3, and have out-gained their opponents on average by 189.9. Aside from their last game against Virginia where they had to mount a fourth quarter comeback, the Cardinals have been the dominant team from start to finish in every other home game.
Away from L&N Stadium, things have been a lot more competitive. The Cardinals are 3-1 in road/neutral matchups this season, but have actually been out-scored by an average margin of 0.5 points, although this is skewed heavily by the loss at Pitt. In these four games, they've also only out-gained their opponent by an average mark of 74.5 yards.
A lot of this has been because the offensive efficiency is drastically different. Louisville has averaged 38.8 points and 459.7 yards per game at home, but just 23.5 points and 408.0 yards away from L&N Stadium.
This is mainly because, on the road, the Cardinals' run-heavy M.O. that has been established since the bye has not been nearly as effective, and Louisville has turned the ball over at a much higher rate. They are averaging 228.0 rushing yards per game at home and have turned the ball over just four times in six home games, but are averaging just 127.0 rushing yards and turned the ball over eight times in four road/neutral games.
"We without question have to find a way to start faster on the road, which we have not done for the most part," Brohm said. "I know we did it at Indiana, but for the most part, we have not. We've got to be able to finish, and I just think playing consistent football for four quarters with as few lapses as we possibly can is important. On the road, you can't lose the turnover battle. You can't have dumb penalties that hurt your team, all those little things you have to try to go in our favor, so we've got to concentrate on those and make sure that we try to win those battles as we're trying to be the most physical team and the toughest team and in finding ways to get points.”
Defensively, the yardage home/away splits haven't been as drastic, as Louisville is allowing on average 277.8 yards per game at home to 333.5 yards per game on the road. However, the scoring and turnover splits, paint a much different story. The Cardinals' defense has allowed 12.5 points per game and generated 12 turnovers in six home games, but has given up 24.0 points per game and secured only six turnovers in four games.
Defensive coordinator Ron English believes that, while the defense doesn't have to worry about an opposing crowd disrupting them, bringing their own energy - especially in their lone loss at Pitt - has been the primary suspect in a dip in defensive and special teams efficiency when on the road.
"You got to play well on special teams and you got to play well on defense to win these road games," he said. "The road games that we've won, we've done that. The road game that we didn't win, we did not play good on defense. We did not play with any energy or enthusiasm. The numbers were okay, but the reality is that wasn't the story of the game. The story of the game is, we had a chance to win the game if we would have played as well as we could play on defense, and we did not do that. It was for due to a lack of intensity, in my opinion, and energy."
With their upcoming matchup at Miami having a berth to the ACC Championship game on the line, arguably the biggest goal for Louisville heading into the game is finding a way to become more efficient when not playing at L&N Stadium. That being said, it won't come easy against the Canes.
It's clear that Miami has certainly underwhelmed since ACC play started. After a dominating 4-0 mark in non-conference play, the Canes have gone 2-4 in against league opponents. Both wins came at home, but both required overtime: one against a down Clemson, and another against Virginia. Their best win is against Texas A&M, who just fired Jimbo Fisher.
But while Miami has left a lot to be desired this season, they are still an extremely talented team that must be taken seriously. According to 247Sports' Team Talent Composite, Miami is the 12th-most talented team in college football, and the second-most talented team behind Notre Dame at 11th that Louisville will face all season. Their 92.6 overall team grade from Pro Football Focus is the 12th-highest grade in the FBS, and is a higher grade than 16 of the teams currently in the AP Top 25.
While their record might not indicate a team who has the potential to be one of the best in the nation, Louisville is treating them as if they are. Especially considering that a berth to competing for an ACC title is on the line.
"We can't really get caught up in their record," safety Devin Neal said. "Looking at them, they're good team. They're fast and physical, of course we know that.
"Going into this game, there's a lot of marbles on the table that we all know that's there. Going into that situation, you're going to get a team's best, and we have to bring our best as well and just meet the expectation that's there when it comes to just executing, and having our proper reads and fits when it comes to offense and defense. But I know they play hard, they're gonna play hard, and I feel like they're gonna come up with a good plan, so we got to do so as well to match them."
Kickoff against the Hurricanes is set for Saturday, No. 18 at 12:00 p.m. EST from Hard Rock Stadium in Coral Gables, Fla.
(Photo of Jack Plummer: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)
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