Projecting the Remainder of Louisville's 2024 Season Using Analytics

It's early into the 2024 season, but metrics are high on the Cardinals moving forward.

Louisville Cardinals quarterback Tyler Shough (9) receives the snap during their game against the Jacksonville State Gamecocks on Saturday, Sept. 7, 2024 at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium in Louisville, Ky. / Clare Grant/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - The Louisville football program's 2024 season is off and running. We may already be at the first bye week, but nonetheless, football for the Cardinals is in full swing.

Louisville might have faced some easy competition up to this point, but there's some early hope that they can do big things once conference play gets here. The Cardinals opened up their season with a 62-0 demolishing of Austin Peay, then followed that up with a 49-14 thrashing of Jacksonville State.

Additionally, there's already beeen some chaos around the ACC and college football as a whole. Some teams are already looking much better than many anticipated, while others are already starting to disappoint.

With all that being said, just how well is Louisville projected to perform moving forward? We have some idea thanks to various predictive college football metrics.

In college football analytics, ESPN's FPI and Bill Connelly's SP+ are the two most well known metrics. In recent years, Kelley Ford's power rankings and Parker Fleming's CFB Graphs have also increased in popularity and mainstream usage.

So where do these metrics currently place the Cards? FPI is the highest on Louisville, ranking them at No. 11 overall in the FBS with a rating of 14.9. Kelley Ford and SP+ are right behind the FPI, both placing them at No. 14 overall with ratings of 15.4 and 16.9, respectively. CFB Graphs is lowest on the Cardinals, but still has them at No. 17 with a rating of 60.6.

Louisville's Remaining 2024 Schedule with Ratings and Rankings

	FPI	SP+	KFord	CFBG
Georgia Tech	5.9 (36th)	1.2 (66th)	5.6 (41st)	53.5 (36th)
at Notre Dame	15.0 (10th)	16.7 (15th)	16.2 (11th)	66.5 (8th)
SMU	4.8 (42nd)	8.5 (37th)	5.4 (42nd)	56.6 (29th)
at Virginia	-1.1 (69th)	-0.1 (69th)	-0.8 (71st)	43.8 (76th)
Miami	14.3 (12th)	19.8 (10th)	17.4 (8th)	63.7 (11th)
at Boston College	9.1 (24th)	4.1 (55th)	9.0 (27th)	46.0 (61st)
at Clemson	13.4 (14th)	15.6 (18th)	16.9 (10th)	59.9 (19th)
at Stanford	-0.8 (67th)	-2.0 (77th)	-1.1 (73rd)	43.8 (75th)
Pitt	3.2 (53rd)	1.9 (63rd)	2.1 (62nd)	44.0 (72nd)
at Kentucky	2.8 (55th)	7.8 (40th)	4.6 (50th)	54.5 (32nd)

Using the ratings above from each individual metric, we can take a deep dive into how the 2024 season might transpire. We can figure out the win percentage in each game (accounting for home vs. away), as well as the expected wins mark at the end of the season.

Percentage Change to Win Each Game, Expected Wins Mark

	FPI	SP+	KFord	CFBG
Georgia Tech	79.6	85.78	85	67.5
at Notre Dame	44.4	44.62	37	38.4
SMU	79.9	73.93	85	75.1
at Virginia	83.2	80.32	83	73.6
Miami	56.9	49.06	58	61.5
at Boston College	59.0	72.77	65	68.5
at Clemson	45.7	47.19	38	48.1
at Stanford	79.1	83.27	87	73.4
Pitt	82.9	84.84	89	84.3
at Kentucky	76.1	65.11	72	49.6
Expected Wins:	9.1	8.87	9.0	----

While the four metrics are all very high on Louisville, they have varying opinions on their opponents. This is especially the case with Georgia Tech, Boston College and Kentucky, where the rankings have a range of around 25 to 30 spots.

Regardless, there is a slight pattern amongst the numbers. Louisville is viewed as a decisive favorite over Georgia Tech, SMU, Virginia, Stanford and Pitt. The Cardinals are favorites over Boston College, but to varying degrees. Against Miami and Kentucky, Louisville ranges from a noted favorite to a very slight underdog. The only two games in which they are an under dog across the board are against Notre Dame and Clemson.

Because of this, the metrics are pretty consistent in what their expected wins marks for Louisville are. Of the three that provided them (CFB Graphs didn't), it hovered either on or around nine wins. For all intents and purposes, based on Louisville's early start, they are projecting the Cardinals to go 9-3 during the regular season.

(Photo of Tyler Shough: Clare Grant/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK)

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