Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Kentucky

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor:

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (6-5, 4-4 ACC) is set to face Kentucky (8-3, 5-3 SEC) on Saturday, Nov. 27 at 7:30 p.m. EST at Cardinal Stadium in Louisville, Ky. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Wildcats:

- Rankings:

	Kentucky	Louisville
AP/USA TODAY	RV/25th	NR/NR
SOS	67th	23rd
SP+	35th	31st
FPI	37th	33rd
Sagarin	33rd	39th

- Offensive Statistics:

	Kentucky	Louisville
Total Offense	51st (423.8)	17th (459.1)
Scoring Offense	45th (31.6)	34th (32.9)
Passing Yards	68th (231.9)	60th (241.6)
Yards Per Completion	74th (12.15)	15th (14.06)
Rushing Yards	39th (191.9)	16th (217.5)
First Downs Gained	46th (244)	67th (233)
3rd Down Con. %	6th (50.4%)	68th (39.5%)
4th Down Con. %	112th (38.5%)	60th (54.5%)
Red Zone Con. %	79th (82.2%)	22nd (89.7%)
Turnovers Lost	126th (22)	39th (12)
Interceptions Thrown	101st (12)	16th (5)
Fumbles Lost	118th (10)	85th (7)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	16th (3.82)	35th (4.64)
Sacks Allowed	34th (1.64)	30th (1.55)
Avg. Time of Possession	19th (31:54)	28th (31:28)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	Kentucky	Louisville
Total Defense	28th (334.8)	77th (391.8
Scoring Defense	38th (22.2)	54th (24.7)
Passing Yards Allowed	53rd (220.3)	101st (253.8)
Rushing Yards Allowed	18th (114.5)	48th (138.0)
3rd Down Defensive %	74th (39.3%)	27th (34.4%)
4th Down Defensive %	7th (33.3%)	55th (47.6%)
First Downs Allowed	33rd (201)	89th (242)
Red Zone Defensive %	116th (90.6%)	102nd (87.8%)
Turnovers Gained	120th (9)	75th (14)
Interceptions Caught	100th (6)	44th (10)
Fumbles Recovered	111th (3)	97th (4)
Sacks Per Game	45th (2.55)	29th (2.73)
TFL Per Game	33rd (6.4)	33rd (6.4)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	Kentucky	Louisville
Net Punting	36th (41.00)	64th (39.16)
Avg. Kickoff Return	113th (17.00)	52nd (21.58)
Avg. Kickoff Return Def.	73rd (21.22)	80th (21.83)
Avg. Punt Return	32nd (10.67)	21st (11.77)
Avg. Punt Return Def.	39th (5.88)	38th (5.64)
Field Goal Attempts	7-10	14-20
PAT	45-47	43-45

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 60.5 percent chance to win against the Wildcats. Louisville has an FPI of 7.5 (33rd overall), whereas Kentucky has a rating of 6.9 (37th overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 56.08 percent chance to take down the Wildcats. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 11.0 (31st overall), whereas Kentucky has a rating of 10.9 (35th overall).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

• Preseason: 6.97
• Post-Week 1: 4.63
• Post-Week 2: 5.71
• Post-Week 3: 6.49
• Post-Week 4: 6.14
• Post-Week 5: 6.19
• Post-Week 6: 5.47
• Post-Week 7: 5.74
• Post-Week 8: 6.56
• Post-Week 9: 6.20
• Post-Week 10: 5.93
• Post-Week 11: 6.40
  
• Post-Week 12: 6.56

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 28, Kentucky 27.

(Photo of Louie, Kyle Bolin, Eli Rogers: Jamie Rhodes - USA TODAY Sports)

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