Tale of the Tape, Predictions: Louisville vs. Florida State

Take a look at how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles for their Saturday matchup, and who the statistical models favor.

LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Louisville (2-1, 0-0 ACC) is set to face Florida State (0-3, 0-0 ACC) on Saturday, Sept. 25 at 3:30 p.m. EST at Doak Campbell Stadium in Tallahassee, Fla. Here's how the Cardinals stack up against the Seminoles:

- Rankings:

	Florida State	Louisville
Associated Press Top 25	NR	RV
USA TODAY Coaches Poll	NR	NR
SOS	4th	64th
SP+	69th	57th
FPI	82nd	64th

- Offensive Statistics:

	Florida State	Louisville
Total Offense	88th (364.7)	48th (432.3)
Passing Yards	107th (179.0)	45th (264.3)
Yards Per Completion	93rd (11.19)	55th (12.59)
Rushing Yards	44th (185.7)	63rd (168.0)
First Downs Gained	91st (57)	60th (64)
3rd Down Con. %	96th (36.1%)	93rd (36.4%)
4th Down Con. %	112th (20.0%)	55th (60.0%)
Red Zone Con. %	126th (60.0%)	36th (91.7%)
Turnovers Lost	129th (10)	61st (4)
Interceptions Thrown	129th (7)	46th (2)
Fumbles Lost	100th (3)	62nd (2)
Tackles For Loss Allowed	109th (7.67)	37th (4.67)
Sacks Allowed	108th (3.00)	25th (1.33)
Avg. Time of Possession	124th (25:45)	17th (33:18)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Defensive Statistics:

	Florida State	Louisville
Total Defense	100th (421.7)	93rd (406.7)
Passing Yards Allowed	116th (289.0)	94th (244.7)
Rushing Yards Allowed	66th (132.7)	86th (162.0)
3rd Down Defensive %	91st (42.3%)	9th (25.8%)
4th Down Defensive %	83rd (60.0%)	117th (100%)
First Downs Allowed	92nd (65)	95th (67)
Red Zone Defensive %	49th (77.8%)	97th (91.7%)
Turnovers Gained	66th (4)	66th (4)
Interceptions Caught	63rd (2)	39th (3)
Fumbles Recovered	38th (2)	73rd (1)
Sacks Per Game	10th (4.00)	84th (1.67)
TFL Per Game	19th (8.00)	89th (5.0)

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- Special Teams Statistics:

	Florida State	Louisville
Net Punting	41st (41.29)	73rd (39.29)
Avg. Kickoff Return	45th (22.25)	54th (21.33)
Avg. Kickoff Ret. Defense	109th (25.00)	13th (11.00)
Avg. Punt Return	67th (7.25)	15th (16.67)
Avg. Punt Ret. Defense	83rd (8.00)	46th (3.25)
Field Goal Attempts	2-3	2-2
PAT	7-7	12-13

Key: National Rank out of 130 FBS Teams (Value)

- FPI Prediction: Per ESPN's Football Power Index, the Cardinals have a 53.4 percent chance to win against the Seminoles. Louisville has an FPI of 1.4 (64th overall), whereas FSU has a rating of -2.5 (82nd overall).

- SP+ Prediction:

Per Bill Connelly's SP+ model, the Cardinals have a 50.00 percent chance to take down the Seminoles. Louisville has an SP+ rating of 5.1 (57th overall), whereas FSU has a rating of 2.6 (69th overall. Following the win over UCF, Louisville is favored in five of their nine remaining games on the schedule (Virginia, Boston College, Syracuse, Duke, Kentucky).

Weekly Expected Wins Mark:

• Preseason: 6.97
• Post-Week 1: 4.63
• Post-Week 2: 5.71
• Post-Week 3: 6.49

- Personal Prediction: Louisville 42, Florida State 24.

(Photo of Malik Cunningham: Melina Myers - USA TODAY Sports)

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